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futurist_fieldguide:horizon_scanning [2021-04-14 10:11]
nik
futurist_fieldguide:horizon_scanning [2021-04-14 10:51]
nik [Synthesis]
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 ==== Sourcing ==== ==== Sourcing ====
  
-Most curious people do some form of informal scanning of different sources. In horizon scanning, it's important to be sufficiently critical of the sources, yet also sufficiently open minded to observe signals that don't agree with our worldview, or counter our arguments. Diversity of sources is key for horizon scanning, in order to get as broad picture of the landscape as possible. +Most curious people have some way of scanning different sources, it may be structured or more informal. In horizon scanning, it's important to be sufficiently critical of the sources, yet also sufficiently open minded to observe signals that don't agree with our worldview, or counter our arguments. Diversity of sources is key for horizon scanning, in order to get as broad picture of the landscape as possible. 
  
   * Official reports (foresight, industry, policy, etc.) are useful to scan the macro environment (megatrends, driving forces)   * Official reports (foresight, industry, policy, etc.) are useful to scan the macro environment (megatrends, driving forces)
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 ==== Sorting ==== ==== Sorting ====
  
-While you might spend most of the time scanning sources to find out what is happening, sorting and structuring the gathered information is just as important to be able to make sense of it all, to be able to answer the question "what does this tell me (about my topic of interest or possible future)+While you might spend time scanning sources to find out what is happening, sorting and structuring the gathered information is also important. It certainly helps to make sense of it all, to be able to answer the question "what does this tell me (about my topic of interest or possible future)?"
  
-How to keep track of all the signals, trends and drivers is a craft, and it'often a personal or collective preference. If you're scanning alone, find a way to collect and curate links, documents, references and other materials in a way that makes sense to you, something like a scanning journal. In this journal you can collect signals, trends and driving forces in a similar way (e.g. each entry can have a title, source, summary, category (STEEP), whether it is creating/confirming/countering change (and why), impact and relevance...)+Keeping track of all the signals, trends and drivers is a craft, and often a personal or collective preference. If you're scanning alone, find a way to collect and curate links, documents, references, photographs and other materials in a way that makes sense to you, it could be something like a scanning journal, a spreadsheet or zettelkastenUse this journal to collect signals, trends and driving forces in a consistent way (e.g. each entry can have a title, source, summary, category (STEEP), perceived impact and relevance) it can also help to ask if something is creatingconfirming, responding to, or countering change (and why).
  
-If you're scanning with a group of people, you'll likely have to setup a shared system (online)where the individuals can input and tag/sort the material in an agreed upon manner, so that the material is accessible and searchable by everyone  +If you're scanning with a group of people, you'll benefit from using a shared system (online) where the material is accessible and searchable, and everyone involved can input, edit, tag or sort things in an agreed upon manner. 
-  * where and how do you bookmark materials?+  * where and how do you bookmark, reference or store materials?
   * is there a shared document repository?   * is there a shared document repository?
   * how do you take notes?   * how do you take notes?
   * how will you keep your evidence, signals and trends together?   * how will you keep your evidence, signals and trends together?
-  * is there a need for a searchable database? +  * is there a need for a more structured database? 
-  * do you need a collective taxonomy specific to your area of interest? +  * do you need a collective taxonomy specific to your area of interest? is it predefined or adhoc
-  * how will you map clusters of signals, trends and forces to understand the landscape as a dynamic ecosystem?+  * how will you map clusters of signals, trends and forces to help understand the landscape as a dynamic ecosystem?
   * do you need additional lenses or frameworks, such as:   * do you need additional lenses or frameworks, such as:
     * [[STEEP]](VD): Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, (Values), (Demographic)     * [[STEEP]](VD): Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, (Values), (Demographic)
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 ==== Synthesis ==== ==== Synthesis ====
  
-(...)+Scanning and sorting usually involves dealing with “too much material”The material could include sources that might not be directly relevant, things from unreliable sources, overly technical sources, or untested speculation alongside heavily verified sourcesSynthesising the material, bringing together the loose ends, the unexpected signals, finding clusters, seeing connections, or correlations between signals, describing trends…
  
 ===== References ===== ===== References =====
  • futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning.txt
  • Last modified: 2021-04-14 10:51
  • by nik