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—— DRAFT ——–

How do we get a sense of the big picture in which our core question or issue is embedded? How do we identify the dynamic potential in a current situation? What might be its constants and variables? How does change happen across micro and macro scales, short and long time horizons? How do we filter and collate things that might be important in a range of possible futures? Horizon scanning (aka environmental scanning) is a good starting point to explore such questions.

Horizon scanning refers to a specific aptitude that enables active, curious, open and non-judgmental sensing to become a continuous (life-long) practice. Horizon scanning is also a set of specific scanning techniques that can help to focus your research. In horizon scanning you observe and track change from multiple points of view. While scanning, you pay attention to signals of change in the world around you. This practice can help you uncover patterns of change over time and anticipate how they might evolve to shape different futures. You observe, collect and track different signals of change, and collate them into bigger patterns of change, such as trends and driving forces.

What are signals of change?

“Signals are things you encounter that can shed light on the future.” —Changeist

Signals of change can be found all around you. They can be found in news, opinions, scientific discoveries, new technologies, products, services, social behaviours, cultural phenomena and artefacts, etc. You can think of signals of change as variables in an otherwise stable system.

Sometimes signals can be quite weak or point to possible but improbable changes (wild cards). Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that doesn't seem important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation, often when you aren't looking for them. The most unpredictable signals are the so called “wild cards”, or “black swan” events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change.

Trends are tendencies and directions of change. They can be observed when analysing past and present signals, and noticing patterns over time. Megatrends (aka drivers or forces of change) are longer-term shifts with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors.

Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. 'Horizon, or Environmental, Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to (1) better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and (2) identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments' http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/pf-ch04.pdf

An example of a horizon scanning aggregate website: http://community.iknowfutures.eu/

Environmental scanning is a task of discovery. Good scanners do all kinds of things to look for clues about how the world is changing: read news, blogs, and listservs, watch TV and YouTube, travel, talk to people, visit factories, go to stores, attend events, and so on. Scanners work to discover leads, ideas, thought triggers, data suggesting a trend, and so on. Then they join with colleagues to talk about what they have found and what it means. http://foresightculture.com/escanning-20

Capturing and Refining Trends Canvas by Changeist

Thirteen rules for scanning (by D. Jarvis):

  • The future is already here, you need to find it
  • Look for clues, not comprehensive evidence
  • Go deep, explore, focus broadly
  • Do not ignore evidence to the contrary, have an open mind
  • Take a global perspective
  • Look for the novel, unfamiliar and uninteresting
  • Look for interactions and combinations
  • Study history to understand the context
  • Make scanning an ongoing, integrated activity
  • Make scanning a shared, social process
  • Identify credible sources
  • Scanning should be relevant (to the organisation)
  • Get out from behind the computer - the future isn’t online:
    • The future is not yet written down, it is concentrated in people and places - find and engage with remarkable people
    • Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences ('Finding the future: Why learning Journeys Give and Adaptive Edge,' Nicole-Anne Boyer))

Existing scanning frameworks:

  • STEEP(VD): Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, (Values), (Demographic)
  • DEGEST: Demography, Environment, Government, Economy, Society, Technology
  • PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, (Legal), (Environmental)
  • FAFA (an integral futures method:
    • Find: where and how to look for scanning hits
    • Analyse: use cross-level analysis (as well as causal layered analysis) to expand the interpretation of the resulting scanning hits
    • Frame: create a framework for organising insights from the scanning hits
    • Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project

Phases of environmental scanning:

  • Framing (understanding the need)
  • Planning (sources and methods)
  • Executing (monitor sources, perform searches…)
  • Sense making (determine the relevance and implications)
  • Adapting (review and adjust the system)

Keep a scanning journal: title, source, summary, category (STEEP), creating/confirming/countering (and why), impact and relevance

From Overview of environmental scanning by D. Jarvis

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