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futurist_fieldguide:kpuu_framework [2015-05-12 12:33]
maja
futurist_fieldguide:kpuu_framework [2021-01-28 19:19]
maja
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-==== KPUU Framework ====+==== Known, presumed, unknown, unknowable (KPUUFramework ====
  
-KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. +KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at this time. The framework was developed by [[http://silberzahnjones.com/|Silberzahn & Jones]], based on the [[:/future_fabulators/analogs_framework|analogs framework]] of historian Ernest May and political scientist Richard Neustadt:
-The framework is developed by [[http://silberzahnjones.com/|Silberzahn & Jones]], based on the [[:/future_fabulators/analogs_framework|analogs framework]] of historian Ernest May and political scientist Richard Neustadt:+
  
-<blockquote>One tool that Milo and I developed for strategists to think in detail about the present – in other words to answer the pretty basic strategic question What is going on?” –  is a refinement of Neustadt and May’s work.  We call it the KPUU framework.  It demands strategists answer and get agreement about four simple questions about the present:  What do we Know (including how did this issue begin)?  What do we Presume? What is Unknown (but could perhaps be discovered by finding the right person or source), and what is essentially Unknowable (e.g. consumer acceptance of chemically-enhanced language learning)?  An open debate about what data goes in each column – especially what is Unknown versus what is simply Unknowable at this moment – uncovers a huge number of assumptions and also exposes strategists’ differing rules of evidence.  This effort to understand more deeply the present is, in our view, more valuable than most efforts to plumb the depths of uncertain futures.+<blockquote>One tool that Milo and I developed for strategists to think in detail about the present -- in other words to answer the pretty basic strategic question 'What is going on?' -- is a refinement of Neustadt and May’s work.  We call it the 'KPUU framework'.  It demands strategists answer and get agreement about four simple questions about the present:  What do we Know (including how did this issue begin)?  What do we Presume? What is Unknown (but could perhaps be discovered by finding the right person or source), and what is essentially Unknowable (e.g. consumer acceptance of chemically-enhanced language learning)?  An open debate about what data goes in each column -- especially what is Unknown versus what is simply Unknowable at this moment -- uncovers a huge number of assumptions and also exposes strategists’ differing rules of evidence. This effort to understand more deeply the present is, in our view, more valuable than most efforts to plumb the depths of uncertain futures. --[[http://silberzahnjones.com/|Silberzahn & Jones]] 
 +</blockquote> 
 + 
 +At FoAM we used this framework to map the present condition of a system as a basis for scenario building and other visioning exercises. We found that for our purposes it was often sufficient to look at what is known, presumed and unknown (whether it was unknown to the people in the room, or unknowable to all).  
 + 
 +{{https://neon.f0.am/s/nWkEyr7qsWAt52S|KPUU Canvas/Template}} 
 + 
 +---- 
 + 
 +== Process == 
 + 
 +The KPU(U) framework is a moderated discussion that guides the participants to separate what they know, presume and do not know about their present situation. Sufficient space is needed for everyone to sit in a semicircle facing a large writing surface (black/white board or a big sheet of paper). The surface should be divided into three or four columns. Something like this:
  
 <html><a href="http://silberzahnjones.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/capture.jpg?w=368&h=222"><img src="http://silberzahnjones.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/capture.jpg?w=368&h=222"></a></html> <html><a href="http://silberzahnjones.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/capture.jpg?w=368&h=222"><img src="http://silberzahnjones.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/capture.jpg?w=368&h=222"></a></html>
  
-  * What do we know for sure – What is Known (K)? In particular, one of the things you want to look at is the origin of the issue: when and how did it start?  When did it become an issue for you? +If appropriate you can distribute sheets of paper with the same template to each participant (see Step 1a). 
-  * What can we safely Presume (P)? These are the assumptions that we can safely make about the issue.  + 
-  * What is Unknown (U1)? These things that are unknown by us but are “knowable” in a real sense by someone. You can unveil these by finding the right person or source. +  * Step 1: Frame the exercise and let the participants know that you will be moderating the discussion and asking specific questions related to the issue they are exploring and that while they discussyou will also be noting things in the three or four columns (knownpresumed, unknown (and unknowable))You will discuss one column at time, but it will be possible to move things from one to the other column upon reflection
-  * What is Unknowable (U2)? These are the mysteries which nobody can know how they will evolve, e.g. consumer acceptance of chemically-enhanced language learning,Here the difficulty is not that we cannot find information, or that someone is trying to keep that information from usbut that information simply doesn’t existIt is called true uncertainty in reference to the work of Nobel Prize winner Frank Knight.  They are the “known unknowns”.+
  
-It is extremely important at this stage to make all assumptions explicit. (...The idea is not to strive for perfection, for that is an elusive goal, but, again, to have an explicit process for sharing of knowledge, including on things the team disagrees about. In fact, we recommend that people first do their own draft KPUU entries alone and then compare and debate their entries among the team.+  * Step 1a (optional): Distribute KPU(U) sheets to each participant and invite them to fill them in individually. They can use the sheets in the subsequent discussion and compare them with each other.
  
-Once the KPUU framework creates an explicit, shared inventory of knowledge about the presentincluding embedded assumptionsthen the question of what it all means (implications) can be asked...+  * Step 2: Start the conversation with the question: **What is known?** What do we know for sure? What are the histories and current facts available about the issue at hand. Think of timesplacespeople, and other things that are certain. There might be things that some people think are certain and others consider assumptionsDiscuss the correct placement before noting things down.
  
-Where to go from here, then? Once you’ve filled the tablehere is how you can look at the result.+  * Step 3: After you have a sense that the known has bee exhausted, you can move on to the next question: **What can we safely presume?** What do we think might be true but are not completely certain about? What is likely to be the case?
  
-  * For the Known informationask the following question: what does it mean to me? +  * Step 4: When this conversation begins to slow downbring in the question: **What is unknown?** List the things that are unknown to the groupbut are known to someone else. I.e. things that the group doesn't know at the moment but could, or should find out. Note: If for your exercise it is more appropriate to use only three columns (only 'unknown'), merge the questions from the next step into this one.
-  For the Presumed information, which really is a set of assumptions, ask: how do we go about examining these assumptions(take action, make studies, expose assumptions) +
-  For the Unknown information, assess if it is important to youand if so, ask how to discover it:  who has the answer? How can you get to them?  +
-  * For the Unknowable informationyou may decide to either work around or to actively shape the situation+
  
-What the steps above suggest is that the KPUU framework, despite its simplicity, will move you towards combining thinking and action. Indeed, KPUU is really strategic thinking in action. Instead of seeing strategy as a sequential process of thinking, then acting, it sees thinking and acting as interwoven.  Assumptions and embedded hypotheses are being tested through action. Unknown information triggers action to learn. Unknowable information leads to design activities to shape the environment. These actions generate information and feed the framework back in return. And it is social: The KPUU works best as a team effort, especially with a diverse team.+  * Step 5: Finally ask, **What is unknowable?** What is impossible to know at this moment? What is truly uncertain? What are our 'known unknowns'?
  
-In our viewonly when one can clearly answer in detail “What is going on?”followed by the question What does it mean?” can the various options for “What should we do?” be considered+  * Step 6: Reflect on the implications of the shared knowledge about the presentas it has been mapped on the KPU(U) table. 
 +    * For the knownreflect on the question, **What does this mean to me**? 
 +    * For the presumed information (or assumptions), ask: **How do we examine the assumptions and test our hypotheses**(E.g. take action, make studies, expose assumptions.) 
 +    * For the unknown, assess if it is important for the issue at hand, and if so, ask **how to discover it**. Discuss what would be needed for the participants to move the unknowns to knowns (asking questions, finding sources, research, meeting people, etc). 
 +    * For the unknowable, ask: **How do we deal with uncertainty?** You may decide to either work around the unknowable or to actively shape the situation so the unknowable becomes irrelevant, or find a way to incorporate uncertainty in your work.
  
-Finally, note that the only forward-looking question in this framework for non-predictive strategy is the final one, and it is focused internally:  ”What should we do?”, not “What will happen?” or  ”What will the world be like?”, etc.</blockquote>+=== References ===
  
-  * http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/11/15/a-simple-framework-to-develop-deep-strategic-understanding-in-uncertain-environments/ +  * [[http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/11/15/a-simple-framework-to-develop-deep-strategic-understanding-in-uncertain-environments/|A simple framework to develop deep strategic understanding in uncertain environments]] by Silberzahn and Jones 
-  * http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/06/27/crafting-non-predictive-strategy-part-1-close-observation-beats-prediction/+  * [[http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/06/27/crafting-non-predictive-strategy-part-1-close-observation-beats-prediction/|Non predictive Strategy]] by Silberzahn and Jones
  • futurist_fieldguide/kpuu_framework.txt
  • Last modified: 2021-01-28 19:19
  • by maja