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resilients:from_pan_to_panarchy [2013-02-06 03:17] – nik | resilients:from_pan_to_panarchy [2013-03-11 13:51] – nik |
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Pan, the universal god of nature in Greek mythology, was our guardian deity on a journey to link resilience theory with future scenario building. This horned, hoofed, hairy and horny deity (Hughes 1986) represents a pervasive spiritual power in nature -- with a personality to match. He is an enthusiastic, goat-legged lover of ecstasy and a dancer among stars, weaving the harmony of the cosmos into playful song. Pan also plays a destabilising role that is best captured in the word "panic." These attributes have come to inspire //[[:panarchy]],// a systems theory elaborated by Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. We make use of this model for comparing ecological and social systems in our scenario-building toolkit — with the idea that in Pan's world, nature is comprised of both chaos and order, panic and control. Our journey in future scenario building sets out on this note. | Pan, the universal god of nature in Greek mythology, was our guardian deity on a journey to link resilience theory with future scenario building. This horned, hoofed, hairy and horny deity (Hughes 1986) represents a pervasive spiritual power in nature -- with a personality to match. He is an enthusiastic, goat-legged lover of ecstasy and a dancer among stars, weaving the harmony of the cosmos into playful song. Pan also plays a destabilising role that is best captured in the word "panic." These attributes have come to inspire //[[:panarchy]],// a systems theory elaborated by Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. We make use of this model for comparing ecological and social systems in our scenario-building toolkit — with the idea that in Pan's world, nature is comprised of both chaos and order, panic and control. Our journey in future scenario building sets out on this note. |
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{{http://www.resalliance.org/images/key_concepts/fig4.jpg}} | {{http://www.resalliance.org/images/key_concepts/fig4.jpg}} |
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=== The Panarchy Model === | === The Panarchy Model === |
Panarchy turns hierarchal systems into dynamic structures that have a set location, speed, time, relationship, and role. The dynamic structure of panarchy is organised into a four-phase cycle: birth/exploitation (r), growth and maturation/conservation (K), death/release (Ω) and renewal/reorganisation (α) (see figure 4b). These four cycles loop back upon themselves. becoming either more resilient or weaker. | Panarchy turns hierarchal systems into dynamic structures that have a set location, speed, time, relationship, and role. The dynamic structure of panarchy is organised into a four-phase cycle: birth/exploitation (r), growth and maturation/conservation (K), death/release (Ω) and renewal/reorganisation (α) (see figure 4b). These four cycles loop back upon themselves. becoming either more resilient or weaker. |
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FIGURE 4a FIGURE 4b | <html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8480357805/" title="figure4 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8386/8480357805_f004ba18e3_b.jpg" width="800" height="274" alt="figure4"></a></html> |
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| FIGURE 4a and FIGURE 4b |
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