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resilients:from_pan_to_panarchy [2013-02-17 06:42] – nikresilients:from_pan_to_panarchy [2015-08-14 14:36] (current) – nik
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 Pan, the universal god of nature in Greek mythology, was our guardian deity on a journey to link resilience theory with future scenario building. This horned, hoofed, hairy and horny deity (Hughes 1986) represents a pervasive spiritual power in nature -- with a personality to match. He is an enthusiastic, goat-legged lover of ecstasy and a dancer among stars, weaving the harmony of the cosmos into playful song. Pan also plays a destabilising role that is best captured in the word "panic." These attributes have come to inspire //[[:panarchy]],// a systems theory elaborated by Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. We make use of this model for comparing ecological and social systems in our scenario-building toolkit — with the idea that in Pan's world, nature is comprised of both chaos and order, panic and control. Our journey in future scenario building sets out on this note. Pan, the universal god of nature in Greek mythology, was our guardian deity on a journey to link resilience theory with future scenario building. This horned, hoofed, hairy and horny deity (Hughes 1986) represents a pervasive spiritual power in nature -- with a personality to match. He is an enthusiastic, goat-legged lover of ecstasy and a dancer among stars, weaving the harmony of the cosmos into playful song. Pan also plays a destabilising role that is best captured in the word "panic." These attributes have come to inspire //[[:panarchy]],// a systems theory elaborated by Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. We make use of this model for comparing ecological and social systems in our scenario-building toolkit — with the idea that in Pan's world, nature is comprised of both chaos and order, panic and control. Our journey in future scenario building sets out on this note.
  
-{{http://www.resalliance.org/images/key_concepts/fig4.jpg}}+{{http://www.resalliance.org/images/key_concepts/fig4.jpg}}  
 +(image credit)
  
 === The Panarchy Model === === The Panarchy Model ===
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-  * **Exploitation (r):** Also referred to as the “birth” phase. This stage is one of rapid expansion. Pioneer and opportunist species proliferate, building up biomass and greater connectedness. Therefore, in this stage, connectedness and stability increase. In ecological terms, this stage occurs when a population finds a fertile niche in which to grow.+  * **Exploitation (R):** Also referred to as the “birth” phase. This stage is one of rapid expansion. Pioneer and opportunist species proliferate, building up biomass and greater connectedness. Therefore, in this stage, connectedness and stability increase. In ecological terms, this stage occurs when a population finds a fertile niche in which to grow.
   * **Conservation (K):** Also referred to as the “growth and maturation” phase. This is a stage of slow accumulation and storage of energy and materials. Here, the biological capital is stored and connectedness reaches its peak. In ecology this stage occurs when a population reaches its carrying capacity and stabilises for a time.   * **Conservation (K):** Also referred to as the “growth and maturation” phase. This is a stage of slow accumulation and storage of energy and materials. Here, the biological capital is stored and connectedness reaches its peak. In ecology this stage occurs when a population reaches its carrying capacity and stabilises for a time.
   * **Release (Ω):** Also referred to as the “death” phase. This stage occurs rapidly in a system that has become over-connected. The release of stored carbon and nutrients is triggered and causes quick and drastic changes. In ecosystems this stage occurs when a population declines due to a competitor or changed conditions.   * **Release (Ω):** Also referred to as the “death” phase. This stage occurs rapidly in a system that has become over-connected. The release of stored carbon and nutrients is triggered and causes quick and drastic changes. In ecosystems this stage occurs when a population declines due to a competitor or changed conditions.
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