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| resilients:prehearsing_the_future [2013-02-24 10:46] – created alkan | resilients:prehearsing_the_future [2013-11-13 13:50] (current) – nik |
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| ====Prehearsing the future==== | ====Prehearsing the future==== |
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| | By Maja Kuzmanovic and Nik Gaffney |
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| //The future is a process, not a theme park.// -- Bruce Sterling((Bruce Sterling, 2002, //Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years.// New York: Random House)) | //The future is a process, not a theme park.// -- Bruce Sterling((Bruce Sterling, 2002, //Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years.// New York: Random House)) |
| If a picture says more than a thousand words, a minute of direct experience says more than words ever can. As children we learned immediately and unequivocally about the consequences of our actions by trying things out. Through play and games we'd put ourselves in new situations, get hurt (or not), try again, laugh a lot at ourselves and others, but ultimately adapt and assimilate new behaviours on a daily basis -- never knowing what a new game might bring. Then gradually we began replacing direct experience with representations: beginning with picturebooks and textbooks, moving on later to news reports and theoretical treatises, statistical models and market projections. There is nothing wrong with representation -- if we had to learn everything we know through direct experience it would take many lifetimes. However, there are some things that remain ungraspable unless we experience them with our own skin. One of these things is the present moment, beginning its life as an unknowable future. | If a picture says more than a thousand words, a minute of direct experience says more than words ever can. As children we learned immediately and unequivocally about the consequences of our actions by trying things out. Through play and games we'd put ourselves in new situations, get hurt (or not), try again, laugh a lot at ourselves and others, but ultimately adapt and assimilate new behaviours on a daily basis -- never knowing what a new game might bring. Then gradually we began replacing direct experience with representations: beginning with picturebooks and textbooks, moving on later to news reports and theoretical treatises, statistical models and market projections. There is nothing wrong with representation -- if we had to learn everything we know through direct experience it would take many lifetimes. However, there are some things that remain ungraspable unless we experience them with our own skin. One of these things is the present moment, beginning its life as an unknowable future. |
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| We can try to predict or calculate our experience of a certain moment, but when it arrives it often differs from our expectations. We can complain and get frightened that we can't know what to expect, or we can open up to a sense of wonder and excitement as we used to do in make-believe games. For most children, the question “what if...” opens up a whole fairground of possible games and stories: What if I could fly? What if we lived on water? What if I was an Indian? For many adults the same question tends to bring up deeply sedimented anxieties: what if the economy collapses? What if I have cancer? What if sea levels rise? Curiosity and fear, both very useful mental attitudes when it comes to survival. | We can try to predict or calculate how we may experience a certain moment, but when it arrives it often differs from our expectations. We can complain and get frightened that we can't know what to expect, or we can open up to a sense of wonder and excitement as we used to do in make-believe games. For most children, the question “what if...” opens up a whole fairground of possible games and stories: What if I could fly? What if we lived on water? What if I was an Indian? For many adults the same question tends to bring up deeply sedimented anxieties: what if the economy collapses? What if I have cancer? What if sea levels rise? Curiosity and fear, both very useful mental attitudes when it comes to survival. |
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| In mindfulness((http://www.mindfulnet.org/page2.htm)) and other meditative practices we learn that our experience of the present moment is largely coloured by our attitudes, grounded in the past and influenced by speculations about the future. We can practice to let go of the past (as we can't change it anyway), but the future is a different thing: we can influence what happens next. As Sarah Connor says in the movie //Terminator II:// “The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.”((http://terminator.wikia.com/wiki/Destiny)) This ability to open up the future doesn't just exist in movies. It is practiced in most children's games, but also in such grown-ups' machinations as strategic foresight, futurology and forecasting, but also improvisation, meditation and disaster drills. All of these quite disparate practices have at least one thing in common: they dare to ask “what if,” then experiment with different answers and observe what happens. | In mindfulness((http://www.mindfulnet.org/page2.htm)) and other meditative practices we learn that our experience of the present moment is largely coloured by our attitudes, grounded in the past and influenced by speculations about the future. We can practice to let go of the past (as we can't change it anyway), but the future is a different thing: we can influence what happens next. As Sarah Connor says in the movie //Terminator II:// “The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.”((http://terminator.wikia.com/wiki/Destiny)) This ability to open up the future doesn't just exist in movies. It is practiced in most children's games, but also in such grown-ups' machinations as strategic foresight, futurology and forecasting, but also improvisation, meditation and disaster drills. All of these quite disparate practices have at least one thing in common: they dare to ask “what if,” then experiment with different answers and observe what happens. |
| All of these realisations can function as an "early warning system" in real situations. We can recognise patterns of events or behaviours as they arise and refer to our shared prehearsal experience. At FoAM we began using names of scenarios to describe actual experiences: //this week was such an// “Incubator” //that I just wanted to retreat to a// “Bohemian Salon”; //she wants a// “Flotilla” //commitment, but is only available as a// “Weekend superhero”… These names became short-cuts for a whole entangled system of concepts and behaviours. When mentioned, memories and emotional responses experienced during a prehearsal would resurface and we could associate causes and effects of events as they begin unfold. | All of these realisations can function as an "early warning system" in real situations. We can recognise patterns of events or behaviours as they arise and refer to our shared prehearsal experience. At FoAM we began using names of scenarios to describe actual experiences: //this week was such an// “Incubator” //that I just wanted to retreat to a// “Bohemian Salon”; //she wants a// “Flotilla” //commitment, but is only available as a// “Weekend superhero”… These names became short-cuts for a whole entangled system of concepts and behaviours. When mentioned, memories and emotional responses experienced during a prehearsal would resurface and we could associate causes and effects of events as they begin unfold. |
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| Recognising patterns of scenarios is still a rather passive approach: we let the future emerge first, then react to it influenced by our experiences within scenarios and prehearsals. A more active approach is to begin implementing changes immediately and steer a situation towards a desired future. We see both approaches as necessary to enhance the resilience of our plans. Too much of one and we're still just responding, too much of the other and we become rigid, holding onto a future we'd like to happen while ignoring the signs that we might be headed to a completely different one. As with every process described in this article, there is no black and white, no heaven and hell, no clear-cut paths to a successful future self. As Bruce Sterling says, the future is a process. | Recognising patterns of scenarios is still a rather passive approach: we let the future emerge first, then react to it influenced by our experiences within scenarios and prehearsals. A more active approach is to begin implementing changes immediately and steer a situation towards a desired future. We see both approaches as necessary to enhance the resilience of our plans. Too much of one and we're still just responding, too much of the other and we become rigid, holding onto a future we'd like to happen while ignoring the signs that we might be headed to a completely different one. As with every practice described in this article, there is no black and white, no heaven and hell, no clear-cut paths to a successful future self. As Bruce Sterling says, the future is a process. |
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| ===The end, but not really=== | ===The end, but not really=== |
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| When we began experimenting with scenarios and prehearsals at FoAM, we weren't sure what to expect. We had a sense that there was something interesting in there, but couldn't quite point to what it was. Instead of researching futurism's state of the art, we found a few things that worked in our context and began our practical experiments. From the first day onward many of us were constantly surprised. Defining the “critical uncertainties” for our scenarios made our biggest challenges surface from a magma of drivers and mega-trends -- without us realising beforehand what they were. The first prehearsal showed how we could become totally different people, while still being ourselves. The second increased the sense of trust and belonging for some but alienated others. The third shone a spotlight on aspects of the present that are unsustainable and should be discarded. | When we began experimenting with scenarios and prehearsals at FoAM, we weren't sure what to expect. We had a sense that there was something interesting in there, but couldn't quite point to what it was. Instead of researching futurism's state of the art, we found a few things that worked in our context and began our practical experiments. From the first day onward there were constant surprises. Defining the “critical uncertainties” for our scenarios made our biggest challenges surface from a magma of drivers and mega-trends -- without us realising beforehand what they were. The first prehearsal showed how we could become totally different people, while still being ourselves. The second enhanced a sense of trust and belonging for some but alienated others. The third shone a spotlight on some of our present practices that were potentially unsustainable and might better be discarded. |
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| We're not yet done with being surprised by the repercussions of scenarios and prehearsals in our daily lives. For now we can conclude that their effectiveness has been proven in a confined setting. They work well for individuals and small groups, communities or organisations, if everyone involved is fully committed to the process. We'd be curious to see how they work with larger networks, whole cities or even countries. There are precedents, including the nation-wide NNNI disaster drills in ex-Yugoslavia,((http://libarynth.org/nnni)) or the more recent Zombie Apocalypse of the US military.((http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2012/1031/No-prank-On-Halloween-US-military-forces-train-for-zombie-apocalypse)) Aside from enlarging their geographic and demographic spread, we'd also like to try prehearsals over different durations: from an hour to a month for example. Finally, we'd like to share the tools and stories, so that different groups of people could prehearse and share their findings. | We're not yet done with being surprised by the repercussions of scenarios and prehearsals in our daily lives. We feel confident that they can be effective in a confined setting: they work well for individuals and small groups, communities or organisations if everyone involved is fully committed to the process. We'd be curious to see how they work with larger networks, whole cities or even countries. There are precedents, including the nation-wide NNNI disaster drills in ex-Yugoslavia,((http://libarynth.org/nnni)) or the more recent Zombie Apocalypse of the US military.((http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2012/1031/No-prank-On-Halloween-US-military-forces-train-for-zombie-apocalypse)) Aside from enlarging their geographic and demographic spread, we'd also like to try prehearsals over different durations: from an hour to a month for example. Finally, we'd like to share the tools and stories, so that different groups of people could prehearse and share their findings. |
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| There is no end to prehearsing possible futures. When it eventually arrives in the present you might realise you're in the middle of the premiere, but there is no ovation -- just life unfolding. | There is no end to prehearsing possible futures. When it eventually arrives in the present you might realise you're in the middle of the premiere, but there is no ovation -- just life unfolding. |
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| * Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley | * Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley |
| * Bruce Sterling, 2002, //Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years.// New York: Random House | * Bruce Sterling, 2002, //Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years,// New York: Random House |
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| | Guidelines for DIY scenario building and prehearsing: |
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| | * http://libarynth.org/resilients/prehearsal_pocket_guide |
| | * http://libarynth.org/resilients/scenario_symphony |
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| Scrapbook-style notes about related topics: | Scrapbook-style notes about related topics: |
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| * http://lib.fo.am/resilients/scenario_planning | * http://libarynth.org/resilients/scenario_planning |
| * http://libarynth.org/resilients/future_preparedness_notes | * http://libarynth.org/resilients/future_preparedness_notes |
alkan