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--- resilients:scenario_planning [2012-09-19 10:15] – added vue reference timbo
+++ resilients:scenario_planning [2013-02-12 04:28] – maja
@@ Line 5: / Line 5: @@
 in "Why Scenarios?" http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php
-=== Scenario workshop at FoAM 201205===
+=== How to Build Scenarios ===
-see [[scenario workshop 201205]]
+<blockquote>Scenario planning derives from the observation that, given the impossibility of knowing precisely how the future will play out, a good decision or strategy to adopt is one that plays out well across several possible futures. To find that "robust" strategy, scenarios are created in plural, such that each scenario diverges markedly from the others. These sets of scenarios are, essentially, specially constructed stories about the future, each one modeling a distinct, plausible world in which we might someday have to live and work.
+Yet, the purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. It's about making these forces visible, so that if they do happen, the planner will at least recognize them. It's about helping make better decisions today.</blockquote>
+From [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson
 === Open source scenarios ===
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 ----
-related: [[future preparedness]]
+related: [[future_preparedness]]