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resilients:scenario_planning [2012-04-12 21:41] – nik | resilients:scenario_planning [2013-02-12 05:50] – maja | ||
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Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, | Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, | ||
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in "Why Scenarios?" | in "Why Scenarios?" | ||
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+ | === How to Build Scenarios === | ||
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+ | < | ||
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+ | Yet, the purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. It's about making these forces visible, so that if they do happen, the planner will at least recognize them. It's about helping make better decisions today.</ | ||
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+ | From [[http:// | ||
=== Open source scenarios === | === Open source scenarios === | ||
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- | in "Open Source Scenario Planning" | + | in "Open Source Scenario Planning" |
+ | and http:// | ||
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+ | === Open foresight === | ||
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+ | "What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together." | ||
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+ | * http:// | ||
+ | * http:// | ||
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+ | === Scenarios & dialogue === | ||
+ | < | ||
=== Scenarios === | === Scenarios === | ||
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{{ : | {{ : | ||
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+ | Diagram prepared with [[http:// | ||
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- | related: [[future preparedness]] | + | related: [[future_preparedness]] |