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resilients:scenario_planning [2012-09-19 10:15] – added vue reference timboresilients:scenario_planning [2014-02-11 05:33] (current) nik
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-===scenario planning & scenario thinking===+====Scenario planning & scenario thinking===
 + 
 +(see updated notes at [[:future_fabulators/scenario_planning]]) 
 <blockquote> <blockquote>
 Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions — might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities. Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions — might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities.
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 in "Why Scenarios?" http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php in "Why Scenarios?" http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php
  
-=== Scenario workshop at FoAM 201205=== +=== How to Build Scenarios === 
-see [[scenario workshop 201205]]+ 
 +<blockquote>Scenario planning derives from the observation that, given the impossibility of knowing precisely how the future will play out, a good decision or strategy to adopt is one that plays out well across several possible futures. To find that "robust" strategy, scenarios are created in plural, such that each scenario diverges markedly from the others. These sets of scenarios are, essentially, specially constructed stories about the future, each one modeling a distinct, plausible world in which we might someday have to live and work. 
 + 
 +Yet, the purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. It's about making these forces visible, so that if they do happen, the planner will at least recognize them. It's about helping make better decisions today.</blockquote> 
 + 
 +From [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson 
  
 === Open source scenarios === === Open source scenarios ===
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 in "Open Source Scenario Planning" http://openthefuture.com/2006/08/otf_core_open_source_scenario.html  in "Open Source Scenario Planning" http://openthefuture.com/2006/08/otf_core_open_source_scenario.html 
 and http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//004246.html and http://www.worldchanging.com/archives//004246.html
 +
 +=== Open foresight ===
 +
 +"What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together." 
 +
 +  * http://emergentbydesign.com/2011/03/07/what-is-open-foresight/
 +  * http://emergentbydesign.com/2012/10/29/open-foresight-model-public-futurism/
  
 === Scenarios & dialogue === === Scenarios & dialogue ===
 <blockquote>The ideal approach to the future combines free speculation and data-driven deduction. Scenarios are an ideal tool for strategic dialogue -- Karl Schroeder</blockquote> <blockquote>The ideal approach to the future combines free speculation and data-driven deduction. Scenarios are an ideal tool for strategic dialogue -- Karl Schroeder</blockquote>
 +
 +=== What next for scenario planning? ===
 +
 +<blockquote>Recently I have been interviewing a variety of high profile futurists and  up-and-coming strategists on how online approaches are transforming scenario planning and futures work.</blockquote>
 +
 +http://news.noahraford.com/?p=313
  
 === Scenarios === === Scenarios ===
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 ---- ----
  
-related: [[future preparedness]]+related: [[future_preparedness]]
  • resilients/scenario_planning.1348049752.txt.gz
  • Last modified: 2012-09-19 10:15
  • by timbo