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resilients:scenario_workshop_201205 [2012-05-31 08:57] – created nik | resilients:scenario_workshop_201205 [2013-02-11 06:59] – Links to resilients:future_preparedness_overview changed to resilients:future_preparedness nik | ||
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===notes from scenario planning workshop at foam 20120530-31=== | ===notes from scenario planning workshop at foam 20120530-31=== | ||
- | (as part of [[: | + | (as part of [[: |
present: amo, | present: amo, | ||
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===Step 1 : Identify your focal challenge/ | ===Step 1 : Identify your focal challenge/ | ||
- | Set a question/ | + | * Set a question/ |
- | You may have a whole set. | + | You may have a whole set. |
- | Tool 1 : Drivers of change cards based on food | + | Tool 1 : Drivers of change cards based on food |
- | Questions based on social, env, eco, poli… | + | Questions based on social, env, eco, poli… |
- | Identify the first question through this tool. | + | Identify the first question through this tool. |
Critical uncertainties. | Critical uncertainties. | ||
Line 246: | Line 246: | ||
Position on the ruler. | Position on the ruler. | ||
Look the scenarios through diverse characters. | Look the scenarios through diverse characters. | ||
- | Panarchy for each scenario. | + | [[:Panarchy]] analysis |
Active, passive and real-time future. | Active, passive and real-time future. | ||
Growth, death and organization. | Growth, death and organization. | ||
+ | ===20120531 (Day 2)=== | ||
+ | ===Introductory discussion=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Working with assumptions only arises the danger of having scenarios with no impact. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Scenarios | ||
+ | Advocacy vehicle | ||
+ | Influencing on policy | ||
+ | Communication vehicle > assumptions is ok for this. | ||
+ | Testing | ||
+ | |||
+ | Selecting scenarios 2 and 4, focusing on scenario 2. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Step 8 : use the foodprints ruler=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Food logistics > Trade and distribution | ||
+ | Cultural dimensions > Accessibility and affordability | ||
+ | Ecosystem type > Wetland | ||
+ | Environmental challenges > Resource depletion | ||
+ | Environmental benefits > Maintenance of biodiversity | ||
+ | Urban food sources > Food markets | ||
+ | Farming methods > Conventional farming | ||
+ | Urban elements > Building | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Step 9 : generating the narrative=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Physical environment : crime, corruption, groups, cheating, mafia, wide price range, buildings, lots of rain, cement, no green, bodyguards, shopfronts, eating places in bakcplaces, sound of activity but not visible, resources depletion > price rise > intolerance building up, a club against all the clubs, rats, club entrance are cleaned, biodiversity, | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Step 10 : identify in which stage of the panarchy we are=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Conservation phase. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Step 11 : generate three possible futures=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | **__Active Future__** | ||
+ | People act in the present to shape their future, they are aware of the link between the two, and actively try to bring the future they are waiting for. | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Destruction phase...__ | ||
+ | Massive food fight, and then supplies run out. | ||
+ | Everything turns into sludge on the ground. | ||
+ | Police stucks the trucks, no one can move out. | ||
+ | No one can see its club members : they are covered in food. | ||
+ | Every one is pushed towards the square by javel attack. | ||
+ | Fire, plasting bags, dead rats, cardboard, unwashed people, heavy smoke. | ||
+ | Everything is stuck. | ||
+ | |||
+ | __The following morning...__ | ||
+ | Anyway to move in the streets. Inaccessible area. Still some porosity, allowing some people to go out. | ||
+ | Amplification and dissipation of power structures. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Criminals get stuff in. They sell food against body services : maçonnerie and prostitution. | ||
+ | But also… cooperation. People collaborating to build bridges, and sharing the last resources they have. | ||
+ | Figgt between collaboration and club lords. | ||
+ | Slowly, organisation around values rather than clubs. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Sky walks, to avoid touching rotting food. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Strange architectural stuff starts to appear > curiosity from outside the city. | ||
+ | |||
+ | **__Passive Future__** | ||
+ | People do not change their behavior, they are aware of some possible futures, but they do not change anything to their present or try to influence their future. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Resource scarcity > diversity and quality reduction > clubs loose of their pride > cheap affordable stuff. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Gentrification happen. | ||
+ | |||
+ | No one cleans the market > layers of stuff > bulldozers come and destroy everything > gentrification. | ||
+ | |||
+ | **__Disconnected real-time future__** | ||
+ | People do not care or think about the future. They just live in the present moment without thinking of tomorrow. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Helicopters bring people and supplies to the clubs. | ||
+ | Poverty gaps. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Step 12 : Define the normative position=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Compost knowledge. | ||
+ | Do something with the TVs. Skywalks ? | ||
+ | |||
+ | Put all the TV on the square so that they have to remove it before they have the market. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Passive/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Evaluation of the process - Comments on how to improve it=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Final step seeing if we have an answer for the question in the end > write a paragraph. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Workshops for composting. | ||
+ | Just define a street where you dump your organic waste. | ||
+ | |||
+ | It's the interaction between a scenario and people' | ||
+ | |||
+ | Civilians, Brooklyn, NYC | ||
+ | |||
+ | Ruler | ||
+ | Added clarity and detail without providing new information. | ||
+ | Narrow things down. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Tools are for conformation and clarifications, | ||
+ | |||
+ | Difficult starting the drivers. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Vantage points. | ||
+ | Way of defining scenarios. | ||
+ | Start the storyline. | ||
+ | Help realize you have to create a physical setting, look at the metabolism, in order to end up with a scenario. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Ranking drivers. | ||
+ | Importance. | ||
+ | Uncertainty. | ||
+ | > Two most important and uncertain things. |