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--- the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 15:21] – maja
+++ the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 17:04] – maja
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 During the [[https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/|Art of Futuring Workshop]] we experimented with a series of techniques to probe possible futures.
+<blockquote>The conundrum of the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable is everyone’s issue – certainly not just ‘futurists’, nor designers, nor those who happen to have dedicated themselves to political theory or activism; nor just the displaced former residents of New Orleans, nor yet the casualties of Detroit’s seemingly inexorable decline. It is everyone’s problem. Futures studies is a community of thinkers that has defined and directly addressed it as such. But the Great Conversation needs to belong to us all, as do all the discursive technologies, principles of experiential futures design, and other paraphernalia of wiser, ongoing conversation and political self-reinvention.
+—Stuart Candy, The Futures of Everyday Life
+</blockquote>
@@ Line 23: / Line 29: @@
 === Card games ===
-Learning to work with constraints, wild cards, Four Archetypal Futures and speculative artefacts
+Learning to work with constraints, wild cards, [[:/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]] and speculative artefacts
   * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt
   * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab.
@@ Line 33: / Line 39: @@
 You can print your own card deck [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]]
-=== Asking questions ===
+=== Past and present ===
+<blockquote>We’re conditioned to see the present moment as “normal,” with all the banality that implies. This is not a banal moment. It’s the sort of intense, chaotic moment, full of strange things, that we previously only found in science fiction. “Right now” feels like all of science fiction happening at once, and needs to be considered in that context
-Paraphrasing from [[https://www.scribd.com/document/18675626/Art-of-Powerful-Questions|The art of powerful questions]] a powerful question is a three-dimensional one. The three dimensions are: construction, scope and assumptions. Construction is about phrasing of the question (see the paragraphs above) - which words you use can inspire or demotivate people. The scope is about tailoring the question to the capacity of people's action - where can people make immediate difference (e.g. family, organisation, community, global society). Finally, every question will have your or wider assumptions built into it, assumptions that might not be shared in the group. We should be especially aware of negative assumptions (“what did we do wrong?” could be better phrased as “what can we learn from what happened?”). Having a question focus on the problem, can make people defensive or disengaged. It's helpful to check if the question encourages learning, reflection, collaboration and/or exploration rather than blaming, competition or justifying.
+—Warren Ellis
+</blockquote>
+Futuring needs to be grounded in the past and present situation. It is important to understand the context or environment that we wish to explore; to distinguish constants from variables and move between micro and macro scales. They can help distill key questions, factors, facts and assumptions about the situations from which futures arise. These techniques can be useful outside of futures practice as well, especially in situations where things may be too complex or messy to untangle in an unstructured conversation. We only used one technique from non-predictive strategy in the Art of Futuring workshop. You can find more techniques [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/observing_and_mapping|here]].
+KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at this time.
-=== Non-predictive strategy ===
+Read more about KPUU [[:/futurist_fieldguide/kpuu_framework|here]].
-KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at this time.
+<blockquote>How can you craft strategy in nonlinear environment? […] instead of putting effort into better prediction (no matter how modest), in many cases strategists must take the opposite approach and learn to focus their effort purely on a better understanding of the present. [By] mitigating the impact of surprises [and] anticipating the consequences of their own actions.
-Read more about KPUU here: https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/kpuu_framework
+—Silberzahn & Jones
+</blockquote>
 === Horizon scanning ===
-Horizon scanning is about tracking change. Analysing current developments undergoing change, such as trends and megatrends and observing change on the micro-scale, looking for possible but improbable changes in the future, also known as weak signals and wild cards.
+Horizon scanning is about tracking change in the past and present, to anticipate how change might evolve in the future. It is about analysing current developments undergoing change, such as trends and megatrends and observing change on the micro-scale, i.e. looking for possible but improbable changes in the future, also known as weak signals and wild cards.
-Trend is a tendency or direction of change. It can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are long-term transformations, with wide-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Wild Cards, or "[[black swan]]" events are things that are unlikely to happen, but when they do, they affect massive change.
+Trend is a tendency or direction of change. It can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are longer-term transformations with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change.
 Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]].
@@ Line 67: / Line 77: @@
 Read more about STEEP analysis [[:/futurist_fieldguide/steep|here]]
+==== Alternative Futures ====
 === Causal Layered Analysis ===
@@ Line 98: / Line 110: @@
 You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml
+We also used [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] approach to scenario building, but only as part of the card games.
@@ Line 108: / Line 121: @@
 == Answering the core question ==
-We asked the core question of the workshop from the vantage points of different scenarios.  four very different answers.
+We asked the core question from the vantage points of different scenarios, to uncover four very different answers.
 == Visualising scenario answers ==
-The answers were visualised as posters
+We visualised the answers as posters or moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures.
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/47297670692/in/dateposted/}}\\
+Read more about creating moodboards [[:/futurist_fieldguide/moodboards|here]]
+Making a poster is similar to creating the front page of a newspaper or magazine. Read more about this approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/newspaper|here]].
 == Closed eye visioning / mental time travel ==
+Closed eye visioning is a meditative/introspective technique where the participants explore different scenarios with their eyes closed, guided by the facilitator’s open questions.
+Here is a description of a similar exercise, using four generic futures: https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/closed_eye_visioning
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/33474762488/in/dateposted/}}\\
+In the Art of Futuring workshop we used elements of [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/day_in_the_life|"a day in the life"]] technique to imagine what one day in each of the scenarios might be like.
 == Personal backstory ==
@@ Line 122: / Line 150: @@
 From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backstory </blockquote>
+The backstory can be created for the scenario as a whole, although at the Art of Futuring Workshop each participant worked on developing a personal backstory (as a written exercise).
-Prototyping
-. Personal profile page (within scenario logic)
+=== Prototyping ===
-. Postcards from the future (tableau vivants)
+Talking and writing stories about the future can be made more tangible and accessible by using drawings, images and other (audio)visual media, physical objects and artefacts. Arthur Brisbane's well-known motto, 'Use a picture. It’s worth a thousand words' applies to futures too: an image can convey an atmosphere of a future at a glance; a video can tell its story in a few minutes; an object can add a tactile, perhaps even olfactory or gustatory dimension.
-Preferred futures
+{{::personal_timeline_of_a_designer_in_lalaland.jpg?150 |}}[[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_fiction|Design fiction]] has popularised making futures tangible by creating 'objects from the future' that are recognisable, yet strangely unfamiliar, raising questions and enabling critical discussions about futures in the present. Futures prototyping techniques borrow from the arts, design, film-making and other creative practices that have well-established methods to imagine possible worlds and bring them to life in different forms.
-. Appreciative Inquiry: Discovery phase (1 of 4)
+At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the following prototyping techniques:
-. Theory of change: Outcomes Framework
+**Personal profile page**
+One of the scenario axes at the Art of Futuring Workshop was looking at (de)centralisation of social media. This exercise was designed to apply an important element of scenario logic (alternative futures of social media) to a phenomenon that is familiar to all participant, such as a personal profile page. In designing such a page from the vantage point of different scenarios, the participants were invited to think about its content and format; about things that they would share about themselves in different futures, etc.
-Prehearsal / pre-enactment
-. Backstories for preferred scenario
+**Postcards from the future**
-. Speculative Experience Design for concrete situation
+To embody elements of the scenarios, we created "Tableau Vivants" at the Art of Futuring workshop. They were collective photographs that would "appear on the profile pages" of the participants.
-Open Space
+<blockquote> A tableau vivant (...) is a static scene containing one or more actors or models. They are stationary and silent, usually in costume, carefully posed, with props and/or scenery, and may be theatrically lit. It thus combines aspects of theatre and the visual arts. </blockquote>
-. hosting workshop sessions
-Adaptive Action Cycle
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/40385138183/in/dateposted/}}\\
-. What? So what? Now What?
-. Invocation
+==== Preferred futures ====
+=== Appreciative Inquiry ===
+Appreciative Inquiry (AI) is a method that focuses on creating preferred futures starting from the strengths, successes and unique attributes of a system or a group in the past and present. AI is grounded in a belief that in any situation there is something that works well. From this position of appreciation, it encourages the participants to discover their aspirations, desires and images of futures they would like to see.
+At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry_interviews|discovery phase]] of appreciative inquiry. Read more about appreciative inquiry [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry|here]].
+{{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/dreamfish/499932920}}\\
+=== Backcasting ===
+<blockquote>Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. (...) The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?"
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting </blockquote>
+== TOC Outcomes Framework ==
+At the Art of futuring workshop we used the Theory of Change Outcomes Framework to experiment with backcasting.
+Read more about TOC Outcomes Framework [[https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/example/completing-the-framework/|here]].
+=== Prehearsal ===
+A prehearsal is an improvised situation of short duration, a try-out of a scenario focusing on the player’s behaviours and interactions, using minimal props and setup. The prehearsed situation should be familiar enough to the participants, so they can focus on the content rather than the form of the prehearsal. The difference between role playing and a prehearsal is that the participants do not assume the role of another character, but play themselves in different situations.
+<blockquote>The general purpose of futures studies could be regarded as the provision of tools for the invention and pursuit of preferred futures; that is, the reconciliation of hopes and expectations. But it begins and ends, finally, with what any individual does in relation to those things. (…) [It is] the most potent political tool, to enable people to systematically redistribute the sensible at will and on their own behalf. (…) development and spread of futures tools rather than the outcomes of their application [is our concern].
+—Stuart Candy, The Futures of Everyday Life
+</blockquote>
+Read more about the steps of designing a prehearsal [[:/futurist_fieldguide/prehearsal|here]].
+At the Art of Futuring Workshop we only had one (optional) session where the participants were invited to design a prehearsal, but we did not get a chance to enact it. The participants developed a more elaborate plan than a simple prehearsal. They designed a "pre-enactment".
+== Pre-enactment ==
+Pre-enactments are direct experiences where future scenarios, alternative pasts or presents can be explored in an immersive situation. They are meant as prototype experiences or rehearsals for situations that haven’t happened (yet). A pre-enactment is an up-close-and-personal, embodied form of futuring, as it reveals habitual behaviours, surprising intuitions and unconscious collective patterns, which are likely to be overlooked or ignored in predominantly cerebral futuring methods.
+Read more about pre-enactments [[:/futurist_fieldguide/pre-enactment|here]]
+=== Invocation ===
+<blockquote>Once you’ve created some wiggle room in the present and explored some of the adjacent possible, you might want some of these possibilities to become manifest. How do you help the possibilities to materialise in the present? Most worldviews and belief systems have ways of invoking the spectral possible. A prayer to St. Anthony might help with a lost set of keys. At life’s many crossroads, turn to Hecate or Papa Legba. At any moment you might make an offering to Green Tara for protection and White Tara for good health. When in need of prosperity or success in business, best ask Lakshmi and Ganesh. Alternatively, follow the predictions of stock-market gurus or the black art of economics. While the specific deities and invocation methods may differ, they all provide ways of focusing attention and framing intent. This is important, because attention helps clarify intent, and intent helps bind anticipation to action. It prepares the mind, and prepares the body. “In the fields of observation” says Louis Pasteur “chance favours only the prepared mind.” (...) Anticipating change, hoping for change, or even fighting for change might not be enough. The idea of change itself might have to change. We need a hex for transforming transformation. “A poem to write on the face of reality”, with all the force of collective intent. -[[https://medium.com/aperiodic-mesmerism/in-anticipation-24c87c34a34f|Maja Kuzmanovic & Nik Gaffney]] </blockquote>
+At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to invoke these realities into being...
+==== Process facilitation ====
+<blockquote>Imagine a future where the most revolutionary changes in our world have not come from nanotech, genetic engineering, artificial intelligence or even space development–but from cognitive science and a deepening understanding of how humans function (or not) in groups. What would such a future look like?
+—Karl Schroeder in [[http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/08/rewilding-etiquette.html|Rewilding Etiquette]]
+</blockquote>
+While the Art of Futuring Workshop focused on future-oriented techniques, we also experimented with several process facilitation techniques that grounded our work in the present, with the people involved. If you are interested in guiding collective futuring processes, it helps to learn about process facilitation as well. You can find a few tips [[hosting_craft|here]]
+Here are a few techniques mentioned explicitly at the Art of Futuring Workshop
+=== Asking questions ===
+A powerful question is a three-dimensional one. The three dimensions are: construction, scope and assumptions. Construction is about phrasing of the question - which words you use can inspire people (e.g. questions starting with why, how and what (if)). The scope is about tailoring the question to the capacity of people's action - where can people make immediate difference (e.g. family, organisation, community, global society).
+Every question will have your or wider assumptions built into it, assumptions that might not be shared in the group. We should be especially aware of negative assumptions (“what did we do wrong?” could be better phrased as “what can we learn from what happened?”). Having a question focus on the problem, can make people defensive or disengaged. It's helpful to check if the question encourages learning, reflection, collaboration and/or exploration rather than blaming, competition or justifying.
+Read more about The art of powerful questions here: https://www.scribd.com/document/18675626/Art-of-Powerful-Questions
@@ Line 169: / Line 264: @@
+=== Theory U ===
-=== U process ===
+The Art of Futuring Workshop was designed with the flow of the Theory-U in mind. we explicitly mentioned the U-Process in relation to our post-lunch silent reflection, meant to allow the participants to return to themselves and integrate the insights and experiences with their inner-life.
+<blockquote>We move down one side of the U (connecting us to the world that is outside of our institutional bubble) to the bottom of the U (connecting us to the world that emerges from within) and up the other side of the U (bringing forth the new into the world). On that journey, at the bottom of the U, lies an inner gate that requires us to drop everything that isn't essential. This process of letting-go (of our old ego and self) and letting-come (our highest future possibility: our Self) establishes a subtle connection to a deeper source of knowing. The essence of presencing is that these two selves - our current self and our best future Self - meet at the bottom of the U and begin to listen and resonate with each other.
-==== Quotes/excerpts ====
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_U</blockquote>
-<blockquote>The general purpose of futures studies could be regarded as the provision of tools for the invention and pursuit of preferred futures; that is, the reconciliation of hopes and expectations. But it begins and ends, finally, with what any individual does in relation to those things. (…) [It is] the most potent political tool, to enable people to systematically redistribute the sensible at will and on their own behalf. (…) development and spread of futures tools rather than the outcomes of their application [is our concern].
-—Stuart Candy, The Futures of Everyday Life
-</blockquote>
-<blockquote>The conundrum of the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable is everyone’s issue – certainly not just ‘futurists’, nor designers, nor those who happen to have dedicated themselves to political theory or activism; nor just the displaced former residents of New Orleans, nor yet the casualties of Detroit’s seemingly inexorable decline. It is everyone’s problem. Futures studies is a community of thinkers that has defined and directly addressed it as such. But the Great Conversation needs to belong to us all, as do all the discursive technologies, principles of experiential futures design, and other paraphernalia of wiser, ongoing conversation and political self-reinvention.
+=== Open Space ===
-—Stuart Candy, The Futures of Everyday Life
+<blockquote> Open Space Technology (OST) is a method for organizing and running a meeting or multi-day conference, where participants have been invited in order to focus on a specific, important task or purpose. OST is a participant-driven process whose agenda is created by people attending.
-</blockquote>
-<blockquote>Imagine a future where the most revolutionary changes in our world have not come from nanotech, genetic engineering, artificial intelligence or even space development–but from cognitive science and a deepening understanding of how humans function (or not) in groups. What would such a future look like?
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Space_Technology </blockquote>
-—Karl Schroeder in [[http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/08/rewilding-etiquette.html|Rewilding Etiquette]]
+At the Art of Futuring Workshop the participants were invited to design evening sessions. We didn't follow the formal OST Marketplace, but we used the open space principles and the participants got a chance to host sessions on their own. For example, one of the participants hosted a session that translated futuring and scenario ideas into a live DJ-set. The playlist can be found [[https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3IP3zLXvJt7G9d7DwHSQ2p?si=zALFi0mqT7eB16EktZuafw|here]]. Another lead a hands-on torch making workshop and night walk.
-</blockquote>
-<blockquote>Scenario planning is not, or rather should not be, about forecasting the future. Instead, it is a tool for collective learning; what matters is what the scenario team learns in creating it. As an exercise, it is useful; as a strategic map for outsiders, it is relatively useless. Therefore, instead of using it as a map for your organization, ignore its conclusion, ignore the scenarios themselves, and think about the trends, forces and events that the NIC identifies, and then add your own, based on your intuition and expertise.
+=== Adaptive Action Cycle ===
-—Silberzahn & Jones
-</blockquote>
+At the end of the Art of Futuring Workshop we used the Adaptive Action Cycle. This feedback technique is designed for iterative processes which can benefit from periodic cycles of evaluation and adaptation. At the core of the technique are three seemingly simple questions: what, so what and now what.
-<blockquote>How can you craft strategy in nonlinear environment? […] instead of putting effort into better prediction (no matter how modest), in many cases strategists must take the opposite approach and learn to focus their effort purely on a better understanding of the present. [By] mitigating the impact of surprises [and] anticipating the consequences of their own actions.
+Read more about this technique [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/adaptive_action_cycle|here]]
-—Silberzahn & Jones
+{{ :futurist_fieldguide:adaptive-action.png?direct&300 |}}
-</blockquote>
-<blockquote>We’re conditioned to see the present moment as “normal,” with all the banality that implies. This is not a banal moment. It’s the sort of intense, chaotic moment, full of strange things, that we previously only found in science fiction. “Right now” feels like all of science fiction happening at once, and needs to be considered in that context
-—Warren Ellis
+==== References ====
-</blockquote>
-==== References ====
   * https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/start
   * https://libarynth.org/future_fabulators/background