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the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 17:04] – majathe_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 17:19] – maja
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-==== The Art Of Futuring ====+===== The Art Of Futuring =====
  
 <blockquote>To describe the creative process of exploring futures, we use the term 'futuring'. We could have chosen other phrases such as 'future studies', 'speculative design' or 'strategic foresight', but 'to future' as a verb encapsulates the engaged, active attitude that we believe is essential when sending probes into these realms. Futuring can be a complex activity involving many facets, or it can be as simple as telling a story that begins with 'What if…'. The process can be individual but is often a collective, participatory exercise. It tends to work best when different modes of knowing and learning are involved – from analytical to generative and synthesising, rational to somatic, intuitive and interpersonal.  <blockquote>To describe the creative process of exploring futures, we use the term 'futuring'. We could have chosen other phrases such as 'future studies', 'speculative design' or 'strategic foresight', but 'to future' as a verb encapsulates the engaged, active attitude that we believe is essential when sending probes into these realms. Futuring can be a complex activity involving many facets, or it can be as simple as telling a story that begins with 'What if…'. The process can be individual but is often a collective, participatory exercise. It tends to work best when different modes of knowing and learning are involved – from analytical to generative and synthesising, rational to somatic, intuitive and interpersonal. 
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   * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/   * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/
  
-==== Techniques from the workshop ====+===== Techniques from the workshop =====
  
 During the [[https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/|Art of Futuring Workshop]] we experimented with a series of techniques to probe possible futures.  During the [[https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/|Art of Futuring Workshop]] we experimented with a series of techniques to probe possible futures. 
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 {{>https://vimeo.com/296869333}}\\  {{>https://vimeo.com/296869333}}\\ 
 +
 +
 +----
  
  
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 Learning to work with constraints, wild cards, [[:/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]] and speculative artefacts Learning to work with constraints, wild cards, [[:/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]] and speculative artefacts
   * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt   * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt
-  * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab.  +  * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab. You can print your own card deck [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]]
- +
-<blockquote> The Thing From The Future is an imagination game that helps players generate countless ideas for artifacts from the future; to amuse, delight, explore, and provoke. </blockquote> +
-       +
-{{>http://vimeo.com/111582424}}\\   +
-   +
-You can print your own card deck [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]]+
        
 +{{>http://vimeo.com/111582424}}\\  
 +
 +
 +
 +----
  
  
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 </blockquote> </blockquote>
  
 +
 +----
  
 === Horizon scanning === === Horizon scanning ===
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 Trend is a tendency or direction of change. It can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are longer-term transformations with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change.  Trend is a tendency or direction of change. It can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are longer-term transformations with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change. 
  
-Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]]. +Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]].\\
 An example of a horizon scanning aggregate website: http://community.iknowfutures.eu/ An example of a horizon scanning aggregate website: http://community.iknowfutures.eu/
  
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 == STEEP analysis == == STEEP analysis ==
  
-STEEP stands for 'social, technological, environmental, economic and political' factors (aka trends, forces, change drivers) that are external to the system, issue or question examined in the futuring exercise, but can influence it.+You can use the STEEP analysis to classify different types of trends and signals in horizon scanning. STEEP stands for 'social, technological, environmental, economic and political' factors (aka trends, forces, change drivers) that are external to the system, issue or question examined in the futuring exercise, but can influence it.
  
 Read more about STEEP analysis [[:/futurist_fieldguide/steep|here]] Read more about STEEP analysis [[:/futurist_fieldguide/steep|here]]
-  +  
 + 
 +----  
  
 ==== Alternative Futures ==== ==== Alternative Futures ====
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 === Causal Layered Analysis === === Causal Layered Analysis ===
  
-Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures.  +Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures. At the Art of Futuring Workshop we used CLA in the horizon scanning exercise. 
- +
- +
-<html><a href="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"><img src="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"></a></html>+
  
 Read more about applying CLA [[:/futurist_fieldguide/causal_layered_analysis|here]]. Read more about applying CLA [[:/futurist_fieldguide/causal_layered_analysis|here]].
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 </blockquote>   </blockquote>  
 +
 +<html><a href="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"><img src="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"></a></html>
 +
 +
 +
 +----
  
  
 === Scenario building === === Scenario building ===
  
-We used the 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures.+We used the 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. We also used [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] approach to scenario building, but only as part of the card games. 
  
-The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties:+ 
 +The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties:
   * reducing the number of change drivers to two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem)   * reducing the number of change drivers to two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem)
   * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds.   * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds.
 +  
 +Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml
 +
 +Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons.
  
 {{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of 'Steps to developing scenarios' by P. Schwartz}} {{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of 'Steps to developing scenarios' by P. Schwartz}}
  
-   
-Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]] 
  
-You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml+----
  
-We also used [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] approach to scenario building, but only as part of the card games.  
  
  
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 The backstory can be created for the scenario as a whole, although at the Art of Futuring Workshop each participant worked on developing a personal backstory (as a written exercise). The backstory can be created for the scenario as a whole, although at the Art of Futuring Workshop each participant worked on developing a personal backstory (as a written exercise).
  
 +----
  
 === Prototyping === === Prototyping ===
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 {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/40385138183/in/dateposted/}}\\ {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/40385138183/in/dateposted/}}\\
 +
 +----
  
 ==== Preferred futures ==== ==== Preferred futures ====
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 {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/dreamfish/499932920}}\\ {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/dreamfish/499932920}}\\
  
 +----
  
 === Backcasting === === Backcasting ===
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 Read more about TOC Outcomes Framework [[https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/example/completing-the-framework/|here]]. Read more about TOC Outcomes Framework [[https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/example/completing-the-framework/|here]].
  
 +----
  
 === Prehearsal === === Prehearsal ===
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 At the Art of Futuring Workshop we only had one (optional) session where the participants were invited to design a prehearsal, but we did not get a chance to enact it. The participants developed a more elaborate plan than a simple prehearsal. They designed a "pre-enactment".   At the Art of Futuring Workshop we only had one (optional) session where the participants were invited to design a prehearsal, but we did not get a chance to enact it. The participants developed a more elaborate plan than a simple prehearsal. They designed a "pre-enactment".  
- 
  
 == Pre-enactment == == Pre-enactment ==
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 Read more about pre-enactments [[:/futurist_fieldguide/pre-enactment|here]] Read more about pre-enactments [[:/futurist_fieldguide/pre-enactment|here]]
 +
 +----
  
 === Invocation === === Invocation ===
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 At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to invoke these realities into being... At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to invoke these realities into being...
  
 +----
  
 ==== Process facilitation ==== ==== Process facilitation ====
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 {{ :futurist_fieldguide:adaptive-action.png?direct&300 |}}  {{ :futurist_fieldguide:adaptive-action.png?direct&300 |}} 
  
 +----
  
 ==== References ==== ==== References ====
  • the_art_of_futuring.txt
  • Last modified: 2024-04-02 12:33
  • by nik