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| the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-12 17:04] – maja | the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 09:48] – [The Art Of Futuring] maja |
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| ==== The Art Of Futuring ==== | ===== The Art Of Futuring ===== |
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| <blockquote>To describe the creative process of exploring futures, we use the term 'futuring'. We could have chosen other phrases such as 'future studies', 'speculative design' or 'strategic foresight', but 'to future' as a verb encapsulates the engaged, active attitude that we believe is essential when sending probes into these realms. Futuring can be a complex activity involving many facets, or it can be as simple as telling a story that begins with 'What if…'. The process can be individual but is often a collective, participatory exercise. It tends to work best when different modes of knowing and learning are involved – from analytical to generative and synthesising, rational to somatic, intuitive and interpersonal. | The purpose of futuring is not to predict the future. Instead, futuring is a way to inform your decisions and actions in the present. It allows you to let go of the status-quo and imagine how situations could develop otherwise. Futuring can situate your visions and ideas in the wider contexts in which you operate. Imagining a range of possible futures can help you articulate coherent visions while also developing a capacity to adapt to whatever the future might bring. |
| </blockquote> | |
| | To describe the creative process of exploring futures, we use the term 'futuring'. We could have chosen other phrases such as 'future studies', 'speculative design' or 'strategic foresight', but 'to future' as a verb encapsulates the engaged, active attitude that we believe is essential when sending probes into these realms. Futuring can be a complex activity involving many facets, or it can be as simple as telling a story that begins with 'What if…'. The process can be individual but is often a collective, participatory exercise. It tends to work best when different modes of knowing and learning are involved – from analytical to generative and synthesising, rational to somatic, intuitive and interpersonal. |
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| * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring/ | * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring/ |
| * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/ | * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/ |
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| ==== Techniques from the workshop ==== | The workshop is designed and facilitated by Maja Kuzmanovic (FoAM), as part of the Futurology of Co-Operation project by Anna Czapski & Diederik Peeters, supported by KASK, SPIN and Kunstenpunt. |
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| During the [[https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/|Art of Futuring Workshop]] we experimented with a series of techniques to probe possible futures. | Workshop participants: Bilal Alnouri, Hazal Arda, Anna Czapski, Delphine Hesters, Pierre Huyghebaert, Joris Janssens, Heike Langsdorf, Sarah Magnan, Mathilde Maillard, Diederik Peeters, Martina Petrovic, Anna Rispoli, Clara Thomine, Emmanuelle Wattier, Adva Zakai |
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| | {{ ::aof-workshop-schedule.pdf |Workshop schedule}}\\ |
| | [[https://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/albums/72157705907755211|Photo album]] |
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| | ===== Futuring Techniques ===== |
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| | The Art of Futuring Workshop offered a hands-on experience of futuring techniques for artists, arts organisations and other members of the cultural proletariat. Futuring techniques were introduced through experiential learning. We experimented with techniques for analysing the current situation and emergent signals. We speculated on future scenarios and prototype futures as embodied experiences in the present. We used these experiments to reflect on the futuring methods, on the applicability of futuring in the participants' work and life, and on the need for a more widespread futures literacy in uncertain times. |
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| <blockquote>The conundrum of the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable is everyone’s issue – certainly not just ‘futurists’, nor designers, nor those who happen to have dedicated themselves to political theory or activism; nor just the displaced former residents of New Orleans, nor yet the casualties of Detroit’s seemingly inexorable decline. It is everyone’s problem. Futures studies is a community of thinkers that has defined and directly addressed it as such. But the Great Conversation needs to belong to us all, as do all the discursive technologies, principles of experiential futures design, and other paraphernalia of wiser, ongoing conversation and political self-reinvention. | <blockquote>The conundrum of the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable is everyone’s issue – certainly not just ‘futurists’, nor designers, nor those who happen to have dedicated themselves to political theory or activism; nor just the displaced former residents of New Orleans, nor yet the casualties of Detroit’s seemingly inexorable decline. It is everyone’s problem. Futures studies is a community of thinkers that has defined and directly addressed it as such. But the Great Conversation needs to belong to us all, as do all the discursive technologies, principles of experiential futures design, and other paraphernalia of wiser, ongoing conversation and political self-reinvention. |
| —Stuart Candy, The Futures of Everyday Life | —Stuart Candy, The Futures of Everyday Life |
| </blockquote> | </blockquote> |
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| | Delphine Hesters, one of the workshop participants documentated the process {{::futurestechniques_march2019_notesdelphine.pdf |in this document}}. |
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| | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/32408521477/i}}\\ |
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| {{>https://vimeo.com/296869333}}\\ | {{>https://vimeo.com/296869333}}\\ |
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| Learning to work with constraints, wild cards, [[:/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]] and speculative artefacts | Learning to work with constraints, wild cards, [[:/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]] and speculative artefacts |
| * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt | * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt |
| * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab. | * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab. You can print your own card deck [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]] |
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| <blockquote> The Thing From The Future is an imagination game that helps players generate countless ideas for artifacts from the future; to amuse, delight, explore, and provoke. </blockquote> | |
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| {{>http://vimeo.com/111582424}}\\ | |
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| You can print your own card deck [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]] | |
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| | {{>http://vimeo.com/111582424}}\\ |
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| </blockquote> | </blockquote> |
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| === Horizon scanning === | === Horizon scanning === |
| Trend is a tendency or direction of change. It can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are longer-term transformations with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change. | Trend is a tendency or direction of change. It can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are longer-term transformations with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change. |
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| Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]]. | Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]].\\ |
| An example of a horizon scanning aggregate website: http://community.iknowfutures.eu/ | An example of a horizon scanning aggregate website: http://community.iknowfutures.eu/ |
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| == STEEP analysis == | == STEEP analysis == |
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| STEEP stands for 'social, technological, environmental, economic and political' factors (aka trends, forces, change drivers) that are external to the system, issue or question examined in the futuring exercise, but can influence it. | You can use the STEEP analysis to classify different types of trends and signals in horizon scanning. STEEP stands for 'social, technological, environmental, economic and political' factors (aka trends, forces, change drivers) that are external to the system, issue or question examined in the futuring exercise, but can influence it. |
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| Read more about STEEP analysis [[:/futurist_fieldguide/steep|here]] | Read more about STEEP analysis [[:/futurist_fieldguide/steep|here]] |
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| ==== Alternative Futures ==== | ==== Alternative Futures ==== |
| === Causal Layered Analysis === | === Causal Layered Analysis === |
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| Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures. | Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures. At the Art of Futuring Workshop we used CLA in the horizon scanning exercise. |
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| <html><a href="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"><img src="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"></a></html> | |
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| Read more about applying CLA [[:/futurist_fieldguide/causal_layered_analysis|here]]. | Read more about applying CLA [[:/futurist_fieldguide/causal_layered_analysis|here]]. |
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| </blockquote> | </blockquote> |
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| | <html><a href="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"><img src="https://38.media.tumblr.com/7aca57b3f430dad3779e1a054584edd0/tumblr_inline_mzybcuGj911qc578m.jpg"></a></html> |
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| === Scenario building === | === Scenario building === |
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| We used the 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. | We used the 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. We also used [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] approach to scenario building, but only as part of the card games. |
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| The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | |
| | The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: |
| * reducing the number of change drivers to two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem) | * reducing the number of change drivers to two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem) |
| * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. | * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. |
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| | Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml |
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| | Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. |
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| {{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of 'Steps to developing scenarios' by P. Schwartz}} | {{ :resilients:scenario-process-diagram.png?1000 |Visual translation of 'Steps to developing scenarios' by P. Schwartz}} |
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| Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]] | |
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| You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml | ---- |
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| We also used [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] approach to scenario building, but only as part of the card games. | |
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| == Visualising scenario answers == | == Visualising scenario answers == |
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| We visualised the answers as posters or moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. | We visualised the answers as posters or moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. Read more about creating moodboards [[:/futurist_fieldguide/moodboards|here]]. Making a poster is similar to creating the front page of a newspaper or magazine. Read more about this approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/newspaper|here]]. |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/47297670692/in/dateposted/}}\\ | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/47297670692/in/dateposted/}}\\ |
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| Read more about creating moodboards [[:/futurist_fieldguide/moodboards|here]] | |
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| Making a poster is similar to creating the front page of a newspaper or magazine. Read more about this approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/newspaper|here]]. | |
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| == Closed eye visioning / mental time travel == | == Closed eye visioning / mental time travel == |
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| Closed eye visioning is a meditative/introspective technique where the participants explore different scenarios with their eyes closed, guided by the facilitator’s open questions. | Closed eye visioning is a meditative/introspective technique where the participants explore different scenarios with their eyes closed, guided by the facilitator’s open questions. You can find the text read by the facilitator at the workshop {{ ::aof-timetravel.pdf |here}}. This text used elements of [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/day_in_the_life|"a day in the life"]] technique, to imagine what one day in each of the scenarios might be like. |
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| Here is a description of a similar exercise, using four generic futures: https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/closed_eye_visioning | Here is a description of a similar closed eye visioning exercise, using four generic futures: https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/closed_eye_visioning |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/33474762488/in/dateposted/}}\\ | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/33474762488/in/dateposted/}}\\ |
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| In the Art of Futuring workshop we used elements of [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/day_in_the_life|"a day in the life"]] technique to imagine what one day in each of the scenarios might be like. | |
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| == Personal backstory == | == Personal backstory == |
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| The backstory can be created for the scenario as a whole, although at the Art of Futuring Workshop each participant worked on developing a personal backstory (as a written exercise). | The backstory can be created for the scenario as a whole, although at the Art of Futuring Workshop each participant worked on developing a personal backstory (as a written exercise). |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/40385138183/in/dateposted/}}\\ | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/40385138183/in/dateposted/}}\\ |
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| ==== Preferred futures ==== | ==== Preferred futures ==== |
| At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry_interviews|discovery phase]] of appreciative inquiry. Read more about appreciative inquiry [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry|here]]. | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry_interviews|discovery phase]] of appreciative inquiry. Read more about appreciative inquiry [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry|here]]. |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/dreamfish/499932920}}\\ | |
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| Read more about TOC Outcomes Framework [[https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/example/completing-the-framework/|here]]. | Read more about TOC Outcomes Framework [[https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/example/completing-the-framework/|here]]. |
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| At the Art of Futuring Workshop we only had one (optional) session where the participants were invited to design a prehearsal, but we did not get a chance to enact it. The participants developed a more elaborate plan than a simple prehearsal. They designed a "pre-enactment". | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we only had one (optional) session where the participants were invited to design a prehearsal, but we did not get a chance to enact it. The participants developed a more elaborate plan than a simple prehearsal. They designed a "pre-enactment". |
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| == Pre-enactment == | == Pre-enactment == |
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| Read more about pre-enactments [[:/futurist_fieldguide/pre-enactment|here]] | Read more about pre-enactments [[:/futurist_fieldguide/pre-enactment|here]] |
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| === Invocation === | === Invocation === |
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| At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to invoke these realities into being... | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to invoke these realities into being... |
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| Read more about this technique [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/adaptive_action_cycle|here]] | Read more about this technique [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/adaptive_action_cycle|here]] |
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| {{ :futurist_fieldguide:adaptive-action.png?direct&300 |}} | |
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| | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/46627345314/}}\\ |
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| ==== References ==== | ==== References ==== |
nik