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| the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 10:36] – maja | the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 14:13] – nik |
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| Futuring needs to be grounded in the past and present situation. It is important to understand the context or environment that we wish to explore; to distinguish constants from variables and understand the factors influencing the situation on micro and macro scales. They can help distill key questions, characteristics, facts and assumptions about the situation. These techniques can be useful outside of futures practice as well, especially in situations where things may be too complex or messy to untangle in unstructured conversations. We only used one technique from non-predictive strategy in the Art of Futuring workshop. You can find more techniques [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/observing_and_mapping|here]]. | Futuring needs to be grounded in the past and present situation. It is important to understand the context or environment that we wish to explore; to distinguish constants from variables and understand the factors influencing the situation on micro and macro scales. They can help distill key questions, characteristics, facts and assumptions about the situation. These techniques can be useful outside of futures practice as well, especially in situations where things may be too complex or messy to untangle in unstructured conversations. We only used one technique from non-predictive strategy in the Art of Futuring workshop. You can find more techniques [[:futurist_fieldguide/observing_and_mapping|here]]. |
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| KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at the present time. | KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at the present time. |
| === Scenario building === | === Scenario building === |
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| There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. | There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [[:futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. |
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| The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: |
| * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. | * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. |
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| Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml | Read more the GBN approach [[:futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml |
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| Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. | Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. |
| == Visualising scenario answers == | == Visualising scenario answers == |
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| We visualised the answers as posters / moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. Read more about creating moodboards [[:/futurist_fieldguide/moodboards|here]]. Making a poster is similar to creating the front page of a newspaper or magazine. Read more about this approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/newspaper|here]]. | We visualised the answers as posters / moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. Read more about creating moodboards [[:/futurist_fieldguide/moodboards|here]]. Making a poster is similar to creating the front page of a newspaper or magazine. Read more about this approach [[:futurist_fieldguide/newspaper|here]]. |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/47297670692/in/dateposted/}}\\ | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/47297670692/in/dateposted/}}\\ |
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| ==== Preferred futures ==== | ==== Preferred futures ==== |
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| | Aside from working with multiple, alternative futures, there are techniques that work with preferred futures, and help us understand their relationship with the past and present. |
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| === Appreciative Inquiry === | === Appreciative Inquiry === |
| Appreciative Inquiry (AI) is a method that focuses on creating preferred futures starting from the strengths, successes and unique attributes of a system or a group in the past and present. AI is grounded in a belief that in any situation there is something that works well. From this position of appreciation, it encourages the participants to discover their aspirations, desires and images of futures they would like to see. | Appreciative Inquiry (AI) is a method that focuses on creating preferred futures starting from the strengths, successes and unique attributes of a system or a group in the past and present. AI is grounded in a belief that in any situation there is something that works well. From this position of appreciation, it encourages the participants to discover their aspirations, desires and images of futures they would like to see. |
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| At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry_interviews|discovery phase]] of appreciative inquiry. Read more about appreciative inquiry [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry|here]]. | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[:futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry_interviews|discovery phase]] of appreciative inquiry. Read more about appreciative inquiry [[:futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry|here]]. |
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| == Pre-enactment == | == Pre-enactment == |
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| Pre-enactments are direct experiences where future scenarios, alternative pasts or presents can be explored in an immersive situation. They are meant as prototype experiences or rehearsals for situations that haven’t happened (yet). A pre-enactment is an up-close-and-personal, embodied form of futuring, as it reveals habitual behaviours, surprising intuitions and unconscious collective patterns, which are likely to be overlooked or ignored in predominantly cerebral futuring methods. | Pre-enactments are inspired by large-scale larps and re-enactments, but rather than enacting an historical or fictional situation, the participants preenact a situation that may exist in their future. During a pre-enactment, a scenario comes to life as a “first-person experience”. Participants can explore what their life might be like in a specific possible future. In order for the experience to be believable, the broad strokes of a scenario need to be filled with the mundane details of daily life, which can include things like food, clothing, tools, work-spaces, interfaces, events, rituals, etc. Elaborating an experience in such detail can help point to inconsistencies between the ideas in the scenario and the gritty reality, between the images of the future and their embodied manifestations. |
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| Read more about pre-enactments [[:/futurist_fieldguide/pre-enactment|here]] | Read more about pre-enactments [[:/futurist_fieldguide/pre-enactment|here]] |
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| === Invocation === | === Invocation === |
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| | We started the Art of Futuring Workshop with divination, an ancient technique to probe the unknown futures. We ended it with another one: invocation. |
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| <blockquote>Once you’ve created some wiggle room in the present and explored some of the adjacent possible, you might want some of these possibilities to become manifest. How do you help the possibilities to materialise in the present? Most worldviews and belief systems have ways of invoking the spectral possible. A prayer to St. Anthony might help with a lost set of keys. At life’s many crossroads, turn to Hecate or Papa Legba. At any moment you might make an offering to Green Tara for protection and White Tara for good health. When in need of prosperity or success in business, best ask Lakshmi and Ganesh. Alternatively, follow the predictions of stock-market gurus or the black art of economics. While the specific deities and invocation methods may differ, they all provide ways of focusing attention and framing intent. This is important, because attention helps clarify intent, and intent helps bind anticipation to action. It prepares the mind, and prepares the body. “In the fields of observation” says Louis Pasteur “chance favours only the prepared mind.” (...) Anticipating change, hoping for change, or even fighting for change might not be enough. The idea of change itself might have to change. We need a hex for transforming transformation. “A poem to write on the face of reality”, with all the force of collective intent. -[[https://medium.com/aperiodic-mesmerism/in-anticipation-24c87c34a34f|Maja Kuzmanovic & Nik Gaffney]] </blockquote> | <blockquote>Once you’ve created some wiggle room in the present and explored some of the adjacent possible, you might want some of these possibilities to become manifest. How do you help the possibilities to materialise in the present? Most worldviews and belief systems have ways of invoking the spectral possible. A prayer to St. Anthony might help with a lost set of keys. At life’s many crossroads, turn to Hecate or Papa Legba. At any moment you might make an offering to Green Tara for protection and White Tara for good health. When in need of prosperity or success in business, best ask Lakshmi and Ganesh. Alternatively, follow the predictions of stock-market gurus or the black art of economics. While the specific deities and invocation methods may differ, they all provide ways of focusing attention and framing intent. This is important, because attention helps clarify intent, and intent helps bind anticipation to action. It prepares the mind, and prepares the body. “In the fields of observation” says Louis Pasteur “chance favours only the prepared mind.” (...) Anticipating change, hoping for change, or even fighting for change might not be enough. The idea of change itself might have to change. We need a hex for transforming transformation. “A poem to write on the face of reality”, with all the force of collective intent. -[[https://medium.com/aperiodic-mesmerism/in-anticipation-24c87c34a34f|Maja Kuzmanovic & Nik Gaffney]] </blockquote> |
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| At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to invoke these realities into being... | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to project our intent into the space, hoping to invoke these realities into being... |
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| At the end of the Art of Futuring Workshop we used the Adaptive Action Cycle. This feedback technique is designed for iterative processes which can benefit from periodic cycles of evaluation and adaptation. At the core of the technique are three seemingly simple questions: what, so what and now what. | At the end of the Art of Futuring Workshop we used the Adaptive Action Cycle. This feedback technique is designed for iterative processes which can benefit from periodic cycles of evaluation and adaptation. At the core of the technique are three seemingly simple questions: what, so what and now what. |
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| Read more about this technique [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/adaptive_action_cycle|here]] | Read more about this technique [[:futurist_fieldguide/adaptive_action_cycle|here]] |
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| ==== References ==== | ==== References ==== |
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| * https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/start | A few formal references: |
| * https://libarynth.org/future_fabulators/background | |
| * https://www.zotero.org/groups/235804/future_fabulators/items/collectionKey/92CX4HZR | * [[https://jfsdigital.org/|Journal of Futures Studies]] |
| * https://www.zotero.org/groups/235804/future_fabulators/items/collectionKey/I55D6MNC | * [[https://www.journals.elsevier.com/futures/|Futures Journal]] |
| * {{ ::future_of_the_world_jenny_andersson_9780198814337_print.pdf |Future of The World}} | * [[http://anticipationconference.org/|Anticipation Conference]] |
| * [[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bwy8eTupdOeKcWVmRUZHV09vOVU/view|Practical Foresight Guide]] | * [[https://apf.org/|Association of Professional Futurists]] |
| | * {{ ::future_of_the_world_jenny_andersson_9780198814337_print.pdf |Future of The World}}, a recent book on the history of futures |
| | * etc. |
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| | Interesting futurists and futures-oriented individuals and organisations: |
| | * [[http://superflux.in/|Superflux]] and [[https://twitter.com/anabjain|Anab Jain]] |
| | * [[http://www.changeist.com/|Changeist]] |
| | * [[https://www.metafuture.org/|Metafuture]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/nraford|Noah Raford]] |
| | * [[https://futuryst.blogspot.com/|Stuart Candy]] |
| | * [[https://extrapolationfactory.com/|Extrapolation Factory]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/justinpickard|Justin Pickard]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/thesjef|Sjef van Gaelen]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/PaulGrahamRaven|Paul Graham Raven]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/wendyinfutures|Wendy Schultz]] |
| | * [[http://longnow.org/|The Long Now Foundation]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/bruces|Bruce Sterling]] |
| | * [[http://pantopicon.be/|Pantopicon]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/AFcrew|Maya van Leemput]] |
| | * [[https://www.edelkoort.com/|Lidewij Edelkoort]] |
| | * etc, etc. |
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| | A few references to FoAM's work with futures |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/start| A Futurists' Fieldguide]], editable collection of futuring techniques, methods and aptitudes |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/enacting_futures_in_postnormal_times|Enacting Futures in Postnormal Times]], a paper describing FoAM's approach to futures, including a chapter on prehearsals and pre-enactments |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/future_fabulators/making_things_physical|Making Things Physical]], article in collaboration with Time's Up about physical and alternate reality narratives in futures |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/future_fabulators/background|Future Fabulators]], research notes on scenario building, experiential futures and other related topics collected during a specific project |
| | * [[https://www.zotero.org/groups/235804/future_fabulators/items/collectionKey/92CX4HZR|Books and articles at the FoAM Library]] collected for the Future Fictions exhibition in Z33 |
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nik