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| the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 10:45] – maja | the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 14:11] – nik |
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| === Scenario building === | === Scenario building === |
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| There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. | There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [[:futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. |
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| The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: |
| * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. | * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. |
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| Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml | Read more the GBN approach [[:futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml |
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| Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. | Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. |
| ==== References ==== | ==== References ==== |
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| * https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/start | A few formal references: |
| * https://libarynth.org/future_fabulators/background | |
| * https://libarynth.org/enacting_futures_in_postnormal_times | * [[https://jfsdigital.org/|Journal of Futures Studies]] |
| * https://www.zotero.org/groups/235804/future_fabulators/items/collectionKey/92CX4HZR | * [[https://www.journals.elsevier.com/futures/|Futures Journal]] |
| * https://www.zotero.org/groups/235804/future_fabulators/items/collectionKey/I55D6MNC | * [[http://anticipationconference.org/|Anticipation Conference]] |
| * {{ ::future_of_the_world_jenny_andersson_9780198814337_print.pdf |Future of The World}} | * [[https://apf.org/|Association of Professional Futurists]] |
| * [[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bwy8eTupdOeKcWVmRUZHV09vOVU/view|Practical Foresight Guide]] | * {{ ::future_of_the_world_jenny_andersson_9780198814337_print.pdf |Future of The World}}, a recent book on the history of futures |
| | * etc. |
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| | Interesting futurists and futures-oriented individuals and organisations: |
| | * [[http://superflux.in/|Superflux]] and [[https://twitter.com/anabjain|Anab Jain]] |
| | * [[http://www.changeist.com/|Changeist]] |
| | * [[https://www.metafuture.org/|Metafuture]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/nraford|Noah Raford]] |
| | * [[https://futuryst.blogspot.com/|Stuart Candy]] |
| | * [[https://extrapolationfactory.com/|Extrapolation Factory]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/justinpickard|Justin Pickard]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/thesjef|Sjef van Gaelen]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/PaulGrahamRaven|Paul Graham Raven]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/wendyinfutures|Wendy Schultz]] |
| | * [[http://longnow.org/|The Long Now Foundation]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/bruces|Bruce Sterling]] |
| | * [[http://pantopicon.be/|Pantopicon]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/AFcrew|Maya van Leemput]] |
| | * [[https://www.edelkoort.com/|Lidewij Edelkoort]] |
| | * etc, etc. |
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| | A few references to FoAM's work with futures |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/start| A Futurists' Fieldguide]], editable collection of futuring techniques, methods and aptitudes |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/enacting_futures_in_postnormal_times|Enacting Futures in Postnormal Times]], a paper describing FoAM's approach to futures, including a chapter on prehearsals and pre-enactments |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/future_fabulators/making_things_physical|Making Things Physical]], article in collaboration with Time's Up about physical and alternate reality narratives in futures |
| | * [[https://libarynth.org/future_fabulators/background|Future Fabulators]], research notes on scenario building, experiential futures and other related topics collected during a specific project |
| | * [[https://www.zotero.org/groups/235804/future_fabulators/items/collectionKey/92CX4HZR|Books and articles at the FoAM Library]] collected for the Future Fictions exhibition in Z33 |
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nik