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| the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 11:22] – [References] maja | the_art_of_futuring [2021-04-13 11:30] – [Futuring Techniques] maja |
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| * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring/ | * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring/ |
| * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/ | * https://fo.am/events/art-futuring-workshop/ |
| | * [[https://www.kunsten.be/nieuws/10958-beluister-onze-eerste-podcastaflevering-over-futurologie|Kunstenpunt podcast from the workshop]] |
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| The workshop is designed and facilitated by Maja Kuzmanovic (FoAM), as part of the Futurology of Co-Operation project by Anna Czapski & Diederik Peeters, supported by KASK, SPIN and Kunstenpunt. | The workshop is designed and facilitated by Maja Kuzmanovic (FoAM), as part of the Futurology of Co-Operation project by Anna Czapski & Diederik Peeters, supported by KASK, SPIN and Kunstenpunt. |
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| The Art of Futuring Workshop offered a hands-on experience of futuring techniques for artists, arts organisations and other members of the cultural proletariat. Futuring techniques were introduced through experiential learning. We experimented with techniques for analysing the current situation and emergent signals. We speculated on future scenarios and prototype futures as embodied experiences in the present. We used these experiments to reflect on the futuring methods, on the applicability of futuring in the participants' work and life, and on the need for a more widespread futures literacy in uncertain times. | The Art of Futuring Workshop offered a hands-on experience of futuring techniques for artists, arts organisations and other members of the cultural proletariat. In addition to mainstream futuring methods like horizon scanning or scenario building, we looked at techniques that are related to (or can be useful for) performing arts. Futuring techniques were introduced through experiential learning. We experimented with techniques for analysing the current situation and emergent signals. We speculated on future scenarios and prototype futures as embodied experiences in the present. We used these experiments to reflect on the futuring methods, on the applicability of futuring in the participants' work and life, and on the need for a more widespread futures literacy in uncertain times. |
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| <blockquote>The conundrum of the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable is everyone’s issue – certainly not just ‘futurists’, nor designers, nor those who happen to have dedicated themselves to political theory or activism; nor just the displaced former residents of New Orleans, nor yet the casualties of Detroit’s seemingly inexorable decline. It is everyone’s problem. Futures studies is a community of thinkers that has defined and directly addressed it as such. But the Great Conversation needs to belong to us all, as do all the discursive technologies, principles of experiential futures design, and other paraphernalia of wiser, ongoing conversation and political self-reinvention. | <blockquote>The conundrum of the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable is everyone’s issue – certainly not just ‘futurists’, nor designers, nor those who happen to have dedicated themselves to political theory or activism; nor just the displaced former residents of New Orleans, nor yet the casualties of Detroit’s seemingly inexorable decline. It is everyone’s problem. Futures studies is a community of thinkers that has defined and directly addressed it as such. But the Great Conversation needs to belong to us all, as do all the discursive technologies, principles of experiential futures design, and other paraphernalia of wiser, ongoing conversation and political self-reinvention. |
| === Divination === | === Divination === |
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| Divination could be considered as the prehistory of futuring, from the mythical past of futures studies. To honor this lineage, we began the workshop by using a contemporary version of Tarot, to add an element of chance and playfulness in the introduction round. The participants were invited to pick one card from [[http://superflux.in/index.php/and-now-for-something-completely-different/#|Instant Archetypes]] from Superflux, describe what they see in the card and speculate on what it might mean for them and their role in the workshop. | Divination could be considered as the prehistory of futuring, from the mythical past of futures studies. To honor this lineage, we began the workshop by using a contemporary version of Tarot, to add an element of chance and playfulness in the introduction round. The participants were invited to pick one card from [[http://superflux.in/index.php/and-now-for-something-completely-different/#|Instant Archetypes]] from Superflux, describe what they see in the card and speculate on what it might mean for them and their role in the workshop. Instant Archetypes are "a toolkit for anyone looking to open up possibilities, surface questions and untangle stubborn challenges. A reimagining of the timeless tropes of the Major Arcana for the 21st Century where the Fool is now the Consumer, the Chariot is a Drone, and the Moon is a Meme." |
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| <blockquote>... a toolkit for anyone looking to open up possibilities, surface questions and untangle stubborn challenges. A reimagining of the timeless tropes of the Major Arcana for the 21st Century where the Fool is now the Consumer, the Chariot is a Drone, and the Moon is a Meme. </blockquote> | |
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| {{>https://vimeo.com/296869333}}\\ | {{>https://vimeo.com/296869333}}\\ |
| The first session of the workshop introduced a few futuring concepts in a playful setting. By playing card games the participants learned about constraints, wild cards, [[:/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]] and speculative artefacts | The first session of the workshop introduced a few futuring concepts in a playful setting. By playing card games the participants learned about constraints, wild cards, [[:/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|Four Generic Futures]] and speculative artefacts |
| * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt | * [[https://www.kunsten.be/dossiers/internationaal-samenwerken-2/reframing-the-international/about-reframing-the-international#!|Reframing the International]] by Kunstenpunt |
| * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab. You can print your own card deck [[http://situationlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FUTURETHING_Print-and-Play.pdf|here]] | * [[https://situationlab.org/project/the-thing-from-the-future/|The Thing from the Future]] by Situation Lab. If the Situation Lab link doesn't work try [[https://library.teachthefuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/The-Thing-From-The-Future.pdf|this link]]. You can print your own card deck {{ ::futurething_print-and-play.pdf |here}} |
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| {{>http://vimeo.com/111582424}}\\ | {{>http://vimeo.com/111582424}}\\ |
| </blockquote> | </blockquote> |
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| Futuring needs to be grounded in the past and present situation. It is important to understand the context or environment that we wish to explore; to distinguish constants from variables and understand the factors influencing the situation on micro and macro scales. They can help distill key questions, characteristics, facts and assumptions about the situation. These techniques can be useful outside of futures practice as well, especially in situations where things may be too complex or messy to untangle in unstructured conversations. We only used one technique from non-predictive strategy in the Art of Futuring workshop. You can find more techniques [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/observing_and_mapping|here]]. | Futuring needs to be grounded in the past and present situation. It is important to understand the context or environment that we wish to explore; to distinguish constants from variables and understand the factors influencing the situation on micro and macro scales. They can help distill key questions, characteristics, facts and assumptions about the situation. These techniques can be useful outside of futures practice as well, especially in situations where things may be too complex or messy to untangle in unstructured conversations. We only used one technique from non-predictive strategy in the Art of Futuring workshop. You can find more techniques [[:futurist_fieldguide/observing_and_mapping|here]]. |
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| KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at the present time. | KPUU Framework is a structured technique to think about and discuss the present, based on what is known, presumed, unknown and unknowable. KPUU helps distinguish facts from assumptions, uncover what the participants don't know, and define what is unknowable at the present time. |
| === Horizon scanning === | === Horizon scanning === |
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| Horizon scanning is about tracking change in the past and present, to anticipate how this change might evolve in the future. It is about analysing current developments, such as trends and megatrends and observing change on the micro-scale which point to possible but improbable changes in the future, also known as weak signals and wild cards. | Horizon scanning is about tracking change in the past and present, to anticipate how this change might evolve in the future. It is about collecting signals of change current developments and collating them into trends and forces/drivers of change. Sometimes signals can be quite weak or point to possible but improbable changes (wild cards). |
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| A few notes on terminology. Horizon scanning investigates different types of change drivers: trends, mega-trends, weak signals and wild cards. Trends are tendencies and directions of change. They can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are longer-term changes with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change. | A few notes on terminology. Horizon scanning investigates different types of changes: signals (including weak signals and wild cards) trends and megatrends (drivers/forces of change). Signals are things you come across that point to possible futures. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that doesn't seem important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation, often when you aren't looking for them. Trends are tendencies and directions of change. They can be observed when analysing past and present signals, and noticing patterns over time. Megatrends (aka drivers or forces of change) are longer-term shifts with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change. |
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| Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]].\\ | Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]].\\ |
| === Scenario building === | === Scenario building === |
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| There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. | There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [[:futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. |
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| The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: |
| * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. | * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. |
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| Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml | Read more the GBN approach [[:futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml |
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| Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. | Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. |
| == Visualising scenario answers == | == Visualising scenario answers == |
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| We visualised the answers as posters / moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. Read more about creating moodboards [[:/futurist_fieldguide/moodboards|here]]. Making a poster is similar to creating the front page of a newspaper or magazine. Read more about this approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/newspaper|here]]. | We visualised the answers as posters / moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. Read more about creating moodboards [[:/futurist_fieldguide/moodboards|here]]. Making a poster is similar to creating the front page of a newspaper or magazine. Read more about this approach [[:futurist_fieldguide/newspaper|here]]. |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/47297670692/in/dateposted/}}\\ | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/47297670692/in/dateposted/}}\\ |
| Appreciative Inquiry (AI) is a method that focuses on creating preferred futures starting from the strengths, successes and unique attributes of a system or a group in the past and present. AI is grounded in a belief that in any situation there is something that works well. From this position of appreciation, it encourages the participants to discover their aspirations, desires and images of futures they would like to see. | Appreciative Inquiry (AI) is a method that focuses on creating preferred futures starting from the strengths, successes and unique attributes of a system or a group in the past and present. AI is grounded in a belief that in any situation there is something that works well. From this position of appreciation, it encourages the participants to discover their aspirations, desires and images of futures they would like to see. |
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| At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry_interviews|discovery phase]] of appreciative inquiry. Read more about appreciative inquiry [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry|here]]. | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[:futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry_interviews|discovery phase]] of appreciative inquiry. Read more about appreciative inquiry [[:futurist_fieldguide/appreciative_inquiry|here]]. |
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| At the end of the Art of Futuring Workshop we used the Adaptive Action Cycle. This feedback technique is designed for iterative processes which can benefit from periodic cycles of evaluation and adaptation. At the core of the technique are three seemingly simple questions: what, so what and now what. | At the end of the Art of Futuring Workshop we used the Adaptive Action Cycle. This feedback technique is designed for iterative processes which can benefit from periodic cycles of evaluation and adaptation. At the core of the technique are three seemingly simple questions: what, so what and now what. |
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| Read more about this technique [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/adaptive_action_cycle|here]] | Read more about this technique [[:futurist_fieldguide/adaptive_action_cycle|here]] |
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| * etc. | * etc. |
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| Interesting futurists and futures-oriented individuals and organisations: | Interesting futurists and futures-oriented individuals and organisations, working close to the arts, design and culture: |
| * [[http://superflux.in/|Superflux]] and [[https://twitter.com/anabjain|Anab Jain]] | * [[http://superflux.in/|Superflux]] and [[https://twitter.com/anabjain|Anab Jain]] |
| * [[http://www.changeist.com/|Changeist]] | * [[http://www.changeist.com/|Changeist]] |
| * [[https://www.metafuture.org/|Metafuture]] | * [[https://www.metafuture.org/|Metafuture]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/actionforesight|Jose Ramos]] |
| | * [[https://twitter.com/nraford|Noah Raford]] |
| * [[https://futuryst.blogspot.com/|Stuart Candy]] | * [[https://futuryst.blogspot.com/|Stuart Candy]] |
| * [[https://extrapolationfactory.com/|Extrapolation Factory]] | * [[https://extrapolationfactory.com/|Extrapolation Factory]] |
nik