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--- the_art_of_futuring [2019-12-02 10:47] – [The Art Of Futuring] maja
+++ the_art_of_futuring [2021-04-13 11:30] – [Futuring Techniques] maja
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 === Horizon scanning ===
-Horizon scanning is about tracking change in the past and present, to anticipate how this change might evolve in the future. It is about analysing current developments, such as trends and megatrends and observing change on the micro-scale which point to possible but improbable changes in the future, also known as weak signals and wild cards.
+Horizon scanning is about tracking change in the past and present, to anticipate how this change might evolve in the future. It is about collecting signals of change current developments and collating them into trends and forces/drivers of change. Sometimes signals  can be quite weak or point to possible but improbable changes (wild cards).
-A few notes on terminology. Horizon scanning investigates different types of change drivers: trends, mega-trends, weak signals and wild cards. Trends are tendencies and directions of change. They can be observed when analysing past and present events, and noticing patterns. Megatrends are longer-term changes with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that isn't important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation. You tend to find weak signals when you aren't looking for them. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change.
+A few notes on terminology. Horizon scanning investigates different types of changes: signals (including weak signals and wild cards) trends and megatrends (drivers/forces of change). Signals are things you come across that point to possible futures. Weak signals are early warnings that something is changing in unexpected ways. Something that doesn't seem important in the present, but could trigger a major change in the future. They might appear in your peripheral vision or a random conversation, often when you aren't looking for them. Trends are tendencies and directions of change. They can be observed when analysing past and present signals, and noticing patterns over time. Megatrends (aka drivers or forces of change) are longer-term shifts with wider-reaching consequences. They are observed over decades (or longer) and have impact across most if not all societal sectors. Finally, we the most unpredictable aspect of horizon scanning are the so called "wild cards", or "[[black swan]]" events. These are events that are unlikely to happen, but when they do they affect massive change.
 Read more about horizon scanning [[:/futurist_fieldguide/horizon_scanning|here]].\\