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| future_fabulators:new_approaches_and_needs_in_foresight [2014-12-10 17:54] – nik | future_fabulators:new_approaches_and_needs_in_foresight [2014-12-10 18:57] (current) – nik |
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| short summary workshop "New approaches in FTA / foresight" at the EU FTA conference, November 2014 | short summary workshop "New approaches in FTA / foresight" at the EU FTA conference, November 2014 (based on notes from Cornelia Daheim) |
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| New Approaches | ===New Approaches=== |
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| | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15902727641/}} |
| | FoAM on [[http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15902727641/|flickr]] |
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| 4 major clusters: | 4 major clusters: |
| + IT-based / "automated” foresight (in early stages, to be used with a "disclaimer” because of the current hype, experiences still have to be evaluated and sense-making still not generated;) Relies strongly on having had a precise "question" / task before starting | - IT-based / "automated” foresight (in early stages, to be used with a "disclaimer” because of the current hype, experiences still have to be evaluated and sense-making still not generated;) Relies strongly on having had a precise "question" / task before starting |
| + Integrated qualitative-quantitative approaches. Few examples, debated how far foresight should go - should never succumb to the traditional numbers dominance | - Integrated qualitative-quantitative approaches. Few examples, debated how far foresight should go - should never succumb to the traditional numbers dominance |
| + Open and Crowdsourced | - Open and Crowdsourced |
| - Lots of potential also in terms of who funds foresight and how - crowdfunding possibilities e.g. for regional / community foresight | * Lots of potential also in terms of who funds foresight and how - crowdfunding possibilities e.g. for regional / community foresight |
| - Quite widespread in terms of open approaches | * Quite widespread in terms of open approaches |
| + New forms of communication: Storytelling / Visualization / Gaming: | - New forms of communication: Storytelling / Visualization / Gaming: |
| - Here, we had the most real "new" examples, e.g. from overlaps / working with Design Fiction, Experiential Foresight (Roleplaying), "Tangible Foresight" ("Exhibitions" / Futures Windows; Objects from the future, ...) | * Here, we had the most real "new" examples, e.g. from overlaps / working with Design Fiction, Experiential Foresight (Roleplaying), "Tangible Foresight" ("Exhibitions" / Futures Windows; Objects from the future, ...) |
| - Major potential for improving the impact / establishing new routes to engagement | * Major potential for improving the impact / establishing new routes to engagement |
| - Further Trends / Tendencies: Impacts Assessment; Focus on Pre-Foresight-Phase (Conceptualization); Tailor-Made Foresight / Test-driving and then adapting approaches / Stochastic tinkering for finding best approach; Cluster / cross-sectoral foresight; Open Innovation Foresight ; Meta-Trend = towards hybrid / combined approaches | * Further Trends / Tendencies: Impacts Assessment; Focus on Pre-Foresight-Phase (Conceptualization); Tailor-Made Foresight / Test-driving and then adapting approaches / Stochastic tinkering for finding best approach; Cluster / cross-sectoral foresight; Open Innovation Foresight ; Meta-Trend = towards hybrid / combined approaches |
| - new application fields also emerging, e.g. society-wide foresight, e.g. with kids; or foresight for therapy, … | * new application fields also emerging, e.g. society-wide foresight, e.g. with kids; or foresight for therapy, … |
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| New or Unmet Needs in Foresight | New or Unmet Needs in Foresight |
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| Where are new needs? | Where are new needs? |
| - Needs in Innovation Field are expanding | * Needs in Innovation Field are expanding |
| - Also in corporate foresight | * Also in corporate foresight |
| - Health / social systems | * Health / social systems |
| - “Political” Foresight | * “Political” Foresight |
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| Need for Shared Theoretical Background / Futures Literacy / practical principles | Need for Shared Theoretical Background / Futures Literacy / practical principles |
| - Shared language / vocabulary | * Shared language / vocabulary |
| - Prove / exemplify impacts | * Prove / exemplify impacts |
| - Practitioners being clear about values | * Practitioners being clear about values |
| - Need for more value-based approaches | * Need for more value-based approaches |
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| Tools and Skills Needs | ===Tools and Skills Needs=== |
| - Open Toolkits / Prototypes | |
| - Take into account emotions and experience | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15904696785/}} |
| - Use of narratives / storytelling; stimulating the imagination | FoAM on [[http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15904696785/|flickr]] |
| - Integrate diversity of input (“overflow” effect) | |
| - Selling power needed | * Open Toolkits / Prototypes |
| - Bridge need for reflecting complexity and smart / emotional communication means | * Take into account emotions and experience |
| - Speed - can we provide instant gratification in foresight? | * Use of narratives / storytelling; stimulating the imagination |
| - Need for skills in change management / changing of cultures (in organizations) | * Integrate diversity of input (“overflow” effect) |
| | * Selling power needed |
| | * Bridge need for reflecting complexity and smart / emotional communication means |
| | * Speed - can we provide instant gratification in foresight? |
| | * Need for skills in change management / changing of cultures (in organizations) |
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| Lots of room for improvement in realm of implementing results / link to decision-making | Lots of room for improvement in realm of implementing results / link to decision-making |
| - Improve impacts by analysing power / timing issues (right person / right time) | * Improve impacts by analysing power / timing issues (right person / right time) |
| - Clarify objectives; Increase acceptance of outputs; give meaning to results | * Clarify objectives; Increase acceptance of outputs; give meaning to results |
| - Create link to implementation / strategy (top-down or bottom-up?); internalization needed | * Create link to implementation / strategy (top-down or bottom-up?); internalization needed |
| - Create demand for citizens | * Create demand for citizens |
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| Foresight 2030 | ===Foresight 2030 === |
| - Many alternative scenarios possible | |
| - Threat of "automation" / takeover from other disciplines / actors | {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15717210038/}} |
| - Opportunity for larger-scale roll-out if being clear on what it can and can't do, relies on clearly demonstrated benefits | FoAM on [[http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15717210038/|flickr]] |
| - Foresight as an everyday tool: low cost and easily accessible tools for the everyday user - personal fore-sighting | |
| - Professional foresight becomes more about framing, sense making and narrative - as scanning becomes more automated | * Many alternative scenarios possible |
| | * Threat of "automation" / takeover from other disciplines / actors |
| | * Opportunity for larger-scale roll-out if being clear on what it can and can't do, relies on clearly demonstrated benefits |
| | * Foresight as an everyday tool: low cost and easily accessible tools for the everyday user - personal fore-sighting |
| | * Professional foresight becomes more about framing, sense making and narrative - as scanning becomes more automated |
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| Who pays for foresight in 2030? Alongside a traditional commissioning model by corporations and governments, crowd funded foresight occurs when groups of individuals involved in communities/advocacy come together to co-fund the foresight projects they really want to see | Who pays for foresight in 2030? Alongside a traditional commissioning model by corporations and governments, crowd funded foresight occurs when groups of individuals involved in communities/advocacy come together to co-fund the foresight projects they really want to see |
| - Foresight becomes part of developing resilience, adapting to change and facilitating behavioral shifts and changing culture | * Foresight becomes part of developing resilience, adapting to change and facilitating behavioral shifts and changing culture |
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| Overall insight, across all 3 groups / topics: New approaches are developing rapidly, especially from working with / overlaps with approaches from other disciplines. The (partly normative) discussion in the community is still missing on which new approaches to push where and for what specific purpose, or where / how to also "counteract" trends and safeguard foresight depth and quality levels. | Overall insight, across all 3 groups / topics: New approaches are developing rapidly, especially from working with / overlaps with approaches from other disciplines. The (partly normative) discussion in the community is still missing on which new approaches to push where and for what specific purpose, or where / how to also "counteract" trends and safeguard foresight depth and quality levels. |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15902727641/}} \\ | |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15904696785/}} \\ | |
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| {{>http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/15717210038/}} \\ | |
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nik