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future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:03] – maja | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 06:36] – [Futures research methods] nik | ||
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Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http:// | Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http:// | ||
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Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process. | Below we explore different elements of scenario building, ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process. | ||
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* Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand | * Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand | ||
* Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, | * Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, | ||
+ | * Insight meditation | ||
* ... | * ... | ||
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//What does a ' | //What does a ' | ||
- | + | A few ideas on [[non_predictive_strategy]] | |
//When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// | //When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?// | ||
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//What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | //What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors// | ||
- | * Affinity diagram | + | * [[https:// |
+ | * [[https:// | ||
* [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
* " | * " | ||
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* See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page | * See various methods on the [[horizon scanning]] page | ||
- | * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the ' | + | * should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the ' |
- | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | + | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? |
* is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | ||
* how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
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==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== | ==== Ranking critical uncertainties ==== | ||
- | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | + | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? |
* [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
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* [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. " | * [[Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle. " | ||
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* More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | * More on [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]] | ||
- | (After reading several papers about this, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?-maja) | + | (After reading several papers about MA/FAR, I wonder what is the difference between MA and FAR?) |
//How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | //How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?// | ||
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==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== | ==== From scenarios to story-worlds ==== | ||
- | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | + | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories? |
- | * what elements do we need in a scenario | + | * [[https:// |
- | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | + | * [[https:// |
+ | * "a day in the life of..." (a character | ||
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==== Retrocasting ==== | ==== Retrocasting ==== | ||
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==== Visualising ==== | ==== Visualising ==== | ||
- | * which methods could we use to visualise | + | // |
+ | * moodboards | ||
+ | * collages | ||
+ | * storyboard | ||
+ | * newspaper with headlines | ||
+ | * video mix | ||
+ | * [[|https:// | ||
==== Prototyping ==== | ==== Prototyping ==== | ||
* which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | ||
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+ | More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futures]] | ||
==== Prehearsals ==== | ==== Prehearsals ==== | ||
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* how to host them? | * how to host them? | ||
* how to evaluate them? | * how to evaluate them? | ||
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+ | continue research on [[prehearsal methods]] | ||
==== Follow-up ==== | ==== Follow-up ==== | ||
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From: [[https:// | From: [[https:// | ||
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+ | {{: | ||
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+ | Mapping scenarios techniques. (Source: Andrew Curry) | ||
+ | ==== Analysis, Summaries and comparisons==== | ||
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+ | Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. "This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. " | ||
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+ | Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), “Roads Less Travelled, | ||
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+ | "The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. [...] eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each." | ||
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+ | Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines and Terry Collins (2007), “The current state of scenario development: | ||
+ | http:// | ||
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+ | "In my experience, scenario planning is an interpretive practice – it’s really closer to magic than technique. ... Look long enough, hard enough, and the pieces will fall into place. Magic is a very difficult thing – most people spend their whole life cutting magic out.” --Napier Collyns | ||