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--- future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 05:50] – [Scenario Methods] maja
+++ future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-02-19 06:36] – [Futures research methods] nik
@@ Line 198: / Line 198: @@
   * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures?
-More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futurism]]
+More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futures]]
 ==== Prehearsals ====
@@ Line 222: / Line 222: @@
 From: [[https://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1558553&show=html|Identifying systems' new initial conditions as influence points for the future]]
+{{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-02-19_at_17.04.07.png?nolink}}
+Mapping scenarios techniques. (Source: Andrew Curry)
+==== Analysis, Summaries and comparisons====
+Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. "This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. "
+Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), “Roads Less Travelled,” Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 13(4). http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf
+"The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. [...] eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each."
+Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines and Terry Collins (2007), “The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques,” Foresight, Vol. 9(1).
+http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf
+"In my experience, scenario planning is an interpretive practice – it’s really closer to magic than technique. ... Look long enough, hard enough, and the pieces will fall into place. Magic is a very difficult thing – most people spend their whole life cutting magic out.” --Napier Collyns