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resilients:scenario_planning [2012-04-12 13:44] – nik | resilients:scenario_planning [2013-02-14 01:49] – nik | ||
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- | ===scenario | + | ===Scenario |
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Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, | Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, | ||
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in "Why Scenarios?" | in "Why Scenarios?" | ||
+ | === How to Build Scenarios === | ||
+ | |||
+ | < | ||
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+ | Yet, the purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint future events but to highlight large-scale forces that push the future in different directions. It's about making these forces visible, so that if they do happen, the planner will at least recognize them. It's about helping make better decisions today.</ | ||
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+ | From [[http:// | ||
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+ | === Open source scenarios === | ||
< | < | ||
Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use. | Imagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use. | ||
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+ | As a result, people around the world could start playing with these scenario elements, re-mixing them in new ways, looking for heretofore unseen connections and surprising combinatorial results. Sharp eyes could seek out and correct underlying problems of logic or fact. Organizations with limited resources and few connections to big thinkers would be able to craft scenario narratives of their own with a planet' | ||
</ | </ | ||
- | in "Open Source Scenario Planning" | + | |
+ | in "Open Source Scenario Planning" | ||
+ | and http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Open foresight === | ||
+ | |||
+ | "What is Open Foresight? We recently introduced the concept of ‘Open Foresight’ as a process we’re developing to analyze complex issues in an open and collaborative way, and to raise the bar on public discourse and forward-focused critical thinking [...] In simple terms, open foresight is a process for building visions of the future together." | ||
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+ | * http:// | ||
+ | * http:// | ||
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+ | === Scenarios & dialogue === | ||
+ | < | ||
+ | |||
+ | === What next for scenario planning? === | ||
+ | |||
+ | < | ||
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+ | http:// | ||
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+ | === Scenarios === | ||
+ | |||
+ | * They' | ||
+ | * They' | ||
+ | * They' | ||
+ | * They' | ||
+ | * Finally, they' | ||
+ | |||
+ | http:// | ||
=== Reference === | === Reference === | ||
* Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http:// | * Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http:// | ||
- | * [taleb rules]] | + | |
+ | | ||
+ | * "The Art of the Long View" by Peter Schwartz | ||
+ | * http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | Diagram prepared with [[http:// | ||
---- | ---- | ||
- | related: [[future preparedness]] | + | related: [[future_preparedness]] |