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scenario planning & scenario thinking
in “Why Scenarios?” http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.phpScenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces — such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions — might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities.
in “Open Source Scenario Planning” http://openthefuture.com/2006/08/otf_core_open_source_scenario.htmlImagine a database of thousands of items all related to understanding how the future could turn out. This database would include narrow concerns and large-scale driving forces alike, would have links to relevant external materials, and would have space for the discussion of and elaboration on the entries. The items in the database would link to scenario documents showing how various forces and changes could combine to produce different possible outcomes. Best of all, the entire construction would be open access, free for the use.
Reference
- Scenario planning resources. a well organised collection of texts, studies and references. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/
- [taleb rules]]
related: future preparedness
nik