title: Future preparedness - the art of the long view slug: future-preparedness-scenariobuilding summary:

scenario building for Future Preparedness Case Study

creation date: 2012-04-26 13:05:15 author: shelbatra jashari content:

In future prehearsals, we aim to model possible futures as participatory performances - scenarios in which we can surprise ourselves and challenge our creative know-how and insight. At FoAM we have been dissecting and experimenting with possible scenarios emerging from the question, “How do we work together on interesting things?”

The models we used for scenario planning and forecasting indicate that it is vital to start with a central issue or working theme that is important to the group or organisation as a whole. Different aspects of this issue can then be explored within a set framework through a number of tools and methods, facilitating the construction of scenarios for possible futures. 

As such, the main point of focus within the framework of our Future Preparedness case study for the Resilients project has remained on the organisational framework of FoAM itself. As a result of this exercise, we produced a diagram that charted "uncertainties"  along 2 axes, "commitment/availability" and "vision/interest." This produced 4 quadrants:

  1. collective vision and partial availability
  2. a collective vision with full availability 
  3. people with individual vision, available always, and…
  4. individual vision and some people available some of the time.

On this basis we next came up with four distinct models of collaboration that could subsequently be prototyped in experimental scenarios: FoAM as a Bohemian Salon, an Incubator for Successful Individuals, a Weekend Warriors garage band, and a Flotilla. 

The next step will be to “prehearse” each of these collaborative models, putting them into practice as experimental situations in the daily life of the studio. We think that these approaches could prove to be relevant and useful beyond their testing at FoAM, to organisations and groups facing similar issues to those we are tackling. In this way, we aim to cultivate beaviours that allow us to be prepared for any possible future.

The main working page for the Future Preparedness case study can be found here:  http://lib.fo.am/resilients/future_preparedness

Work-in-progress for each of the scenarios are here:

  •  http://lib.fo.am/resilients/the_flotilla
  • http://lib.fo.am/resilients/bohemian_salon
  • http://lib.fo.am/resilients/success_incubator
  • http://lib.fo.am/resilients/weekend_superheroes